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What is needed for the comeback of fuel cell vehicles?

An IDTechEx study analyzes problems, perspectives, and opportunities for hydrogen-powered vehicles.

So that power returns to the hydrogen tank, a lot of adjustments are still necessary – at least according to the conclusion of a recent study. (Photo: Toyota)
So that power returns to the hydrogen tank, a lot of adjustments are still necessary – at least according to the conclusion of a recent study. (Photo: Toyota)
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Sales of fuel cell vehicles have largely come to a halt since 2021. However, does this mean that there will be no market for them in the future? And what is necessary to make them a success? The study "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts" by Dr. James Edmondson, Research Director at IDTechEx, is skeptical about whether fuel cell vehicles will develop into a solution for the mass market. However, it sees a limited opportunity under certain circumstances and for targeted applications. Thanks to the currently very small market, fuel cell vehicles could see over 60-fold growth in the next 20 years.

The Problems of Fuel Cell Vehicles

Fuel cell vehicles make little sense in the automotive market, both from a physical standpoint and from the perspective of consumers. Their major advantage over battery-powered vehicles is greater range. However, most fully electric models can meet the normal range requirements of most people, and the public charging network is constantly being improved for longer trips. While it is a valid argument that not everyone has access to a charging station at home, this situation is steadily improving, and the same argument can also be made for fuel cell vehicles: There are very few refueling stations, making refueling difficult.

Hydrogen as a fuel is also very expensive. Based on IDTechEx estimates for the approximate costs of diesel, electricity, and hydrogen in California in 2023, a Tesla Model 3 could cost about $0.04/mile, compared to a Toyota Mirai at $0.21/mile, which is even higher than the cost of a gasoline vehicle at $0.15/mile. While this will vary by region, hydrogen costs need to be closer to $3/kg to compete with pure electric vehicles – currently, the price per kilogram for green hydrogen in California is sometimes as high as $30. Moreover, refueling stations are currently closing in droves.

The vehicles are also expensive to purchase: The entry-level price in the U.S. is around $50,000. In contrast, a Tesla Model 3 costs about $40,000 (both before subsidies). The price of fuel cell cars has dropped significantly, but the complexity of the drivetrain is one of the main causes of the cost increase. Compared to a fully electric drivetrain, which requires a battery, a motor, and power electronics, a fuel cell vehicle needs a (much smaller) battery, a motor, power electronics, a fuel cell, and hydrogen storage.

The efficiency of energy production is also an issue. Green hydrogen from renewable energy is needed to make hydrogen cars a zero-emission solution. However, if this renewable energy is used for a fully electric vehicle, about 75% of it reaches the wheels. For a fuel cell vehicle, only about 15% to at most 25% is available for propulsion. From a physical standpoint, therefore, a pure electric vehicle should be used whenever possible.

What is required for the success of fuel cell vehicles?

Subsidies and incentive programs have largely determined the success of fuel cell vehicles to date. While this was initially also true for electric cars, subsidies have been drastically reduced for them in many regions – but demand continues to rise. Hydrogen vehicles have been offered with high upfront cost incentives and subsidized fuel. However, in the long term, they must present a compelling case for ownership independent of financial support from OEMs or governments.

In the short term, governments will need to support the development of a hydrogen economy. Some regions are much more aggressive in this regard than others. There are more effective uses for green hydrogen than as a vehicle fuel, such as decarbonizing industries where it is traditionally used, including refining and the production of ammonia and methanol or steel production, where hydrogen can serve as a reducing gas for the production of direct reduced iron (DRI).

If the costs of green hydrogen can be sufficiently reduced through these developments, it could become viable for use in certain vehicles. However, IDTechEx does not expect the infrastructure for hydrogen refueling to be comparable with the existing gasoline/diesel infrastructure. Rather, hydrogen refueling stations are likely to be deployed in specific application cases where there is demand.

Where Should Fuel Cell Vehicles Be Used?

IDTechEx believes that hydrogen is not optimal for use in vehicles like cars, vans, or buses, where fully electric vehicles can largely and much better fulfill the required work cycle. However, fuel cell vehicles could be used where the work cycle is so demanding that electric vehicles can hardly manage it, and the route either lies at two hubs or between two hubs that use green hydrogen for the aforementioned applications - not for vehicles.

IDTechEx has spoken with multiple truck original equipment manufacturers and found that many believe there are long-distance routes and climate zones for heavy-duty trucks that will be difficult to handle with fully electric vehicles, even with megawatt charging stations. In this case – if the fuel is cheap enough and the region is pushing for a hydrogen economy – there could be a use case for fuel cell vehicles.

Summary

The IDTechEx study highlighted many limitations and drawbacks of fuel cell vehicles, while there are currently very few application possibilities for them. However, the transportation markets are large, so even a small market share could lead to a significant opportunity for component and vehicle suppliers. While fuel cell vehicles in an ideal world may not be the best solution, a combination of specific use cases and supporting hydrogen applications could mean limited success for them.

The IDTechEx report "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies and Forecasts" provides technology and market insights into the adoption of fuel cell vehicles for the car, van, truck, and bus market, with an analysis of drivers, barriers, players, models, and market forecasts for 2024-2044. It can be obtained here (paid).

Translated automatically from German.
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