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VDI Life Cycle Assessment of Passenger Car Drives: Electric Cars Greener After 90,000 Kilometers

The longer electric cars run and the more green electricity they use, the greener their balance sheet becomes: According to the VDI, electric cars are ahead after 90,000 kilometers at the latest, and with a mileage of 200,000 kilometers, they outperform all combustion engines. Additionally, plug-in hybrids are a curse or blessing depending on their electric share. E-fuels and hydrogen are irrelevant.

In terms of car costs, the electric vehicle was far ahead of the Golf diesel in an ADAC analysis. This is also the case in the mid-term environmental balance, as VDI now calculates. | Photo: ADAC
In terms of car costs, the electric vehicle was far ahead of the Golf diesel in an ADAC analysis. This is also the case in the mid-term environmental balance, as VDI now calculates. | Photo: ADAC
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Johannes Reichel

The Association of German Engineers (VDI) has conducted an extensive study examining the entire life cycle assessment - from production to 200,000 km mileage - of electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and conventionally powered cars (both diesel and petrol). According to the VDI, like the ADAC, Green NCAP, or the Munich Research Office for Energy Economy, the study also concludes with a positive assessment of the environmental friendliness of electric cars, although significantly later in the lifecycle. The association emphasizes that they wanted to consider more than just the operation of various vehicle types. The VDI life cycle analysis compares the ecological footprint of various car drive concepts based on compact class vehicles produced today, such as the VW ID.3, Ford Focus petrol, Toyota Corolla hybrid, or VW Golf diesel.

Already in 2020, the association had compared different vehicle types and drives over their entire life cycle (LCA study 2020), with less positive results for electric cars and rather advantages for diesel. The paper had then faced fierce criticism over its basic assumptions. According to the VDI, the calculation basis for the updated study has been comprehensively revised. Now, even the association, which is known to be rather critical of electric vehicles, can no longer ignore the environmental advantage of electric cars, even under more conservative assumptions.

"After the publication of the last study in 2020, we announced that we would continue to pursue the subject, took the suggestions and criticisms to heart, and considered them in the preparation of this study. In the present study, we have content added the area of hybrid vehicles; however, we did not further consider cars with fuel cells," explains Ralf Marquard, spokesperson for the Committee of Experts in the Department of Automotive Technology of the VDI Society for Vehicle and Traffic Technology.

They do not want the balance to be understood as taking sides against the combustion engine and wish for a "more technology-neutral" policy, also explained the former Mercedes and BMW manager Lutz Eckstein, who now heads the Institute for Automotive Engineering at RWTH and serves as the President of the VDI. When presenting the study, he now states in response to the question of which car is the least harmful to the climate: "Clearly, drive electric, preferably with self-produced green electricity".

The smallest eco-backpack belongs to EVs and properly used plug-in hybrids

Considering vehicles from production to an assumed mileage of 200,000 km, the VDI analysis concludes that electric cars and plug-in hybrids achieve the best results. It was clearly shown that electric cars become increasingly climate-friendly with a higher share of renewable electricity but are already greener than petrol or diesel cars with the current German electricity mix. However, only the green-produced battery makes e-mobility climate-friendly. In the future, batteries need to be sustainably produced and recycled in Germany and Europe, demands the association, which assumed the "worst case" in the current study: a battery from China, including mining (100 kg CO2 per kWh). Moreover, there can be no climate-friendly traffic in Germany without the expansion of renewable energies, claims the association as a truism.

Optimistic assumption: No Ford Focus consumes only 5.4 l/100 km

Electric vehicles are also slightly disadvantaged by the assumption that a Ford Focus petrol actually consumes the factory-specified 5.4 l/100 km, which is not the case in reality. In tests by AMS, it consumed 7.5 l/100 km. It should also be considered that electric cars and their batteries last longer than 200,000 kilometers and the electricity mix becomes greener quickly. The study is only a snapshot based on data from 2021, justifies Joachim Damasky, former managing director of the VDA and now chairman of the VDI Society for Vehicle and Traffic Technology. It is quite possible that a current vehicle performs better. At least the VDI analysts did not find the e-fuels, which are accompanied by great hopes from the FDP transport minister, relevant. These cannot be produced in Germany, and the additional demand for green electricity makes it "energetically difficult," explained Eckstein to the Spiegel. Fuel cell vehicles, offered only by Toyota and Hyundai, are ultimately not available in sufficient numbers on the market for a useful comparison.

The key findings:

  • Electric cars become more climate-friendly the longer they run. From about 90,000 kilometers mileage, electric cars in Germany are more climate-friendly than combustion engines.
  • With the assumed mileage of 200,000 km, the considered electric car and the plug-in hybrid from the compact class achieve the best climate balance.
  • Electric car: 24.2 t CO2, plug-in hybrid: 24.8 t CO2, diesel: 33 t CO2, petrol: 37 t CO2

The most important results in detail:

  • One of the most important findings of the study is the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that occur during the manufacturing of a car. For electric vehicles, more than half of the CO2 emissions still come from the production of the powertrain alone. For an electric car with a battery capacity of 82 kWh, this amounts to 10.12 t CO2e. For a gasoline-powered car, it's only 1.21 t CO2e (see Figure 1).
  • Delving deeper into the production of an electric vehicle's powertrain, it becomes clear that battery production is the main contributor to the high CO2 emissions during production, accounting for 83% (8.37 t CO2e) (see Figure 2). Other components play a subordinate role. Consequently, the electric car starts with a worse production-related CO2 balance, which it needs to compensate for during its usage phase.
  • Analysts have highlighted that driving profile and energy source have a decisive impact on operational GHG emissions, depending on the drivetrain concept. Our analysis was based on an assumed mileage of 200,000 kilometers using the average value method and the WLTP scenario. In this context, the examined electric car with a battery capacity of 62 kWh (24.2 t CO2e) and the compact class plug-in hybrid (24.8 t CO2e) perform best. Diesel (33 t CO2e) and gasoline vehicles (37.1 t CO2e) follow (see Figure 3). The advantage of the electric car becomes apparent at 90,000 km. From this point, the electric car is more climate-friendly than the conventional gasoline-powered car.
  • Depending on the different boundary conditions of the balance analysis, such as the energy approach used in accounting (average approach and marginal approach) or the different driving profiles (WLTP, short distance, etc.), there is a spread in the resulting balance results. Based on the average, so-called WLTP energy consumption of the vehicles, the use of the average approach results in GHG emissions of 24.2 t CO2eq for an electric car with a battery capacity of 62 kWh. Considering the marginal electricity approach, a value of approximately 33.8 t CO2eq results depending on the perspective. If the vehicle is charged with solar power, the result is only 19.1 t CO2eq.
  • For the highway driving profile, the values are 27.5 t CO2eq for the average approach and 40.8 t CO2eq for the marginal electricity approach. For plug-in hybrid vehicles, GHG emissions range between 24.8 t CO2eq (WLTP, average approach) and 46.0 t CO2eq (EcoTest in hybrid mode) depending on the analysis approach and application profile.
  • For diesel, gasoline, and hybrid vehicles, GHG emissions range from 25.1 t CO2eq (FHEV-g) to 43.6 t CO2eq (ICEV-g, short distance) depending on the technology configurations and driving profiles.
  • The plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV-g) shows the widest range of results. The use case and analysis method lead to a wide range from 24.8 t CO2eq to 46.0 t CO2eq.

    The demands of the VDI:

    • No green e-mobility without green electricity.
    • Only green batteries enable green e-mobility.
    • Strengthen Germany as a location: Batteries must be sustainably produced and recycled in Germany and Europe with renewable electricity.
    • E-fuels are an important technology component - for the existing fleet.
    • Plug-in hybrids make a positive contribution with a high proportion of electric driving.
    • A new lighter M0 class offers additional potential for urban use.
    • Research and development of battery recycling must be further advanced and specifically promoted.
    Translated automatically from German.
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