VDA: BEV production rises massively despite a weak market

The passenger car market remains challenging, as shown by the VDA figures. According to the VDA, the growth dynamics have halved when taking into account the number of working days. In May, domestic passenger car production had still grown by 30 percent compared to the same month last year. In the first eight months of this year, production increased by 28 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching 2.78 million passenger cars. This puts domestic passenger car production for this period 12 percent below the level of the pre-crisis year 2019.

The growth dynamics in the year-to-date through the end of July – more recent detailed data are not yet available – stem mainly from electric passenger cars, particularly purely battery-electric BEVs. Their production increased by 128 percent to 589,800 passenger cars, surpassing diesel passenger car production, which amounted to 488,100 units. The plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that are especially popular abroad increased by 13 percent to 170,600 units in the first seven months.

Exports in August, after a significant rise in July, took a breather with a slight increase of 2 percent to 192,500 passenger cars. In the first eight months of this year, 2.09 million passenger cars were exported. This is 27 percent more than in the same period last year. Thus, exports have so far this year almost paralleled domestic passenger car production.

At least: Domestic order backlog is in the positive

For the first time in about a year and a half (since March 2022), domestic orders showed a positive trend. Compared to the same month last year, 7 percent more orders were registered in August this year. However, it is essential to consider the low-level base effect from August 2022. Nevertheless: domestic orders in the past month were 35 percent below the pre-crisis level of August 2019. In the first eight months, domestic orders decreased by 22 percent compared to the same period last year. Foreign orders in August were 1 percent below the previous year's level. In the year-to-date, foreign orders were down 5 percent. Overall – i.e., domestic and foreign orders combined – 7 percent fewer orders were registered in the first eight months than in the same period last year.

More new registrations in August, but there were pull-forward effects

In August, 273,400 passenger cars were newly registered in Germany. This represents an increase of 37 percent compared to the same month last year and is due to a pull-forward effect: The environmental bonus, which as of September 1 is only available to private and no longer to commercial owners, led to a temporary boom in BEV new registrations. These rose by 171 percent to 86,650 units. This is the second-highest monthly figure after December 2022, when the environmental bonus for PHEVs was about to expire, resulting in a similar pull-forward effect.

The 86,650 newly registered BEVs in August also mean that nearly every third newly registered passenger car in that month is purely electric. In the year-to-date, the German passenger car market grew by 16 percent to 1.91 million vehicles. This is clearly 23 percent below the pre-crisis level of 2019.

What does this mean?

Political uncertainties, inflation, and the phasing out of electric car subsidies are creating clouds in the car market. So far, the figures in Germany are still holding up, but everyone is now waiting eagerly for the last quarter. Currently, the figures for electromobility are still good, but it remains to be seen how things will develop after the subsidies are phased out.