UBA: Germany on Climate Course for the First Time - Traffic Off Course

In 2023, Germany emitted 10.1 percent less greenhouse gases (GHG) than in 2022. This is shown by new figures from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). The reasons are the increased share of renewable energies, a decline in fossil energy production, and a decreased energy demand from businesses and consumers. Overall, around 673 million tons of GHG were released in Germany in 2023 – 76 million tons or 10.1 percent less than in 2022. This is the sharpest decline since 1990. However, the transport sector specifically needs to catch up in terms of climate protection. It significantly missed its climate targets again and stands 13 million tons above the permissible sector budget.

“With the outbreak of the war against Ukraine, many were concerned that we would see a renaissance of coal and other fossil fuels. Today we know that this hasn’t happened. This is primarily due to the very successful expansion of renewable energies. This is a big step that will help us with climate protection in the coming years. But we are not doing well in all sectors. The transport sector, in particular, remains a major concern. Urgent action is needed here – for example, through the expansion of electromobility and the reduction of company car privileges and other climate-damaging subsidies. Looking towards 2030, I am confident that we can meet our national climate targets. We have already made significant progress in climate protection. At the beginning of the legislative period, we were still anticipating 1,100 million tons too many GHGs for 2030. Now we see in our projections for 2030 that this gap will be closed if we continue to work ambitiously on climate protection,” explained UBA President Dirk Messner.

In transport, around 146 million tons of CO₂ equivalents were emitted in 2023. Thus, GHG emissions in the transport sector are about 1.8 million tons (1.2 percent) below the 2022 value and about 13 million tons above the permissible annual emissions level of 133 million tons of CO₂ equivalents for 2023 according to the Climate Change Act (KSG). The emissions had slightly increased in the previous year. Given the only slight overshoot in the building sector, transport is the only sector that has significantly missed its target and is moving further away from the legal target path. The main driver of the slight decline in emissions is not effective climate protection measures, but the decreasing mileage in road freight traffic. Compared to 2022, car traffic slightly increased in 2023. The newly registered electric vehicles in the car fleet last year have a slight emission-reducing effect.

“For the first time ever, the numbers show: Germany is on track – for the first time. If we stay on course, we will achieve our 2030 climate targets. Then we will close the climate protection gap! And with an economy that is recovering. This shows: The efforts are worth it, our actions make a difference. When I took office as Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection in 2021, there was a huge gap of 1,100 million tons CO₂. The speed of climate protection had to nearly triple. And it was more than unclear at the beginning of this government term whether we would manage to get on target course. And now we can close the gap, if we continue to work intensively to implement the necessary measures. We are not equally strong in all sectors – that’s why we need to make even greater efforts in some areas,” explains the responsible Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection Robert Habeck (Greens).

Heterogeneous Picture in the Sectors: Energy Well on Track

The development in the individual sectors shows a heterogeneous picture: The energy, industry, agriculture, waste management, and other sectors are exceeding their targets. The transport and especially the building sectors show an improvement compared to earlier projections. However, they miss their previous sector targets, notes Habeck. Since emissions in transport and buildings are significant for the EU's Climate Regulation (Effort Sharing Regulation, ESR), this also means that Germany could miss its 2030 targets here without further measures, warns the minister.

In the Energy Sector, GHG emissions in 2023 decreased by around 51.8 million tons of CO₂ equivalents or 20.1 percent compared to the previous year, which is due to the lower use of fossil fuels for electricity and heat generation. This decline was particularly strong in the use of lignite, hard coal, and natural gas. Reasons for this include the significantly reduced coal-fired power generation, the consistent expansion of renewable energies, and a surplus in electricity imports while energy demand decreased. Other drivers were energy savings as a result of higher consumer prices and mild weather conditions in the winter months.

Industry: Light and Shadow Due to Sluggish Economy

In the Industry sector, emissions fell for the second consecutive year to around 155 million tons of CO2 equivalents in 2023. This corresponds to a decrease of almost 13 million tons or 7.7 percent compared to the previous year. Thus, the industrial sector is around 18 million tons CO2 equivalents below its annual emission level for 2023. Here too, the reduction in emissions is driven by the decreased use of fossil fuels, especially natural gas and hard coal. Important drivers of this trend include the negative economic development and increased production costs, which led to declines in production.

The Building Sector also saw a reduction in emissions by 8.3 million tons of CO₂ equivalents to around 102 million tons of CO₂ equivalents (minus 7.5 percent). Despite this reduction, the building sector again exceeds the annual emission level permitted by the Federal Climate Protection Act (KSG), this time by around 1.2 million tons of CO₂ equivalents. Key drivers for the reduction in emissions are again energy savings due to the mild weather conditions in the winter months of 2023 and higher consumer prices. The expansion of heat pumps also had a positive impact on emissions in the building sector, as less natural gas and heating oil were used, for example.