Turnaround in transportation stalls: States consider cuts in public transport

More and more people are using local and regional transport buses and trains - but instead of expanding them, some countries are currently considering reducing the offer due to a lack of funds. In some places, this is already a done deal. In Schleswig-Holstein, for example, additional trains and connections during off-peak hours and on weekends are being cut on numerous regional train lines with the timetable change in December. 

"The cancellations - even if they only affect off-peak hours and less than 1.5 percent of all connections in the state - remain painful and are certainly not the signal we want to send," said the state transport minister, Claus Ruhe Madsen (CDU), in August. 

Association: Cancellations also threaten elsewhere

In other countries, reductions in supply on the rails are also becoming more concrete.

"Lower Saxony has announced a review and, to our knowledge, cancellations are also threatening in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia," the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) said upon request.

The plans pertain to the coming year, i.e., the timetable change in December 2025.

"It's not just about cancellations of services that are already running, but also about additional orders that can no longer be financed," explained the VDV. It also concerns reinforcement trains that were already planned due to high passenger growth, "but were still calculated on a cost basis that, given the extremely increased costs, is now no longer feasible."

Revenues do not cover cost increases

The reason for the reduction is the same everywhere: There is a lack of money to cover the rising costs of operations. According to the association, personnel costs for companies rose by around 13 percent between 2019 and 2021, while material expenses for repairs and maintenance, as well as for operating supplies and energy, increased by almost 40 percent. Since then, inflation has subsided again, but costs remain high. 

The federal states are responsible for regional rail transport. It is financed from ticket sales revenues and by the federal government through so-called regionalization funds. Last year alone, these federal funds amounted to around 12.4 billion euros, including special payments. 

This fund for the states is expected to grow by three percent annually until 2031.

“However, the actual cost increases are significantly higher,” said the VDV.

From the perspective of the industry, the regionalization funds would need to increase by around three billion euros annually just to secure the existing offering. Federal budget negotiations are currently underway again, including on this issue.

Demand has increased significantly - Public transport often reaches its limits

Federal states and the industry have long been demanding adequate funding. On the one hand, the sector is a cornerstone for the traffic transition and thus for the federal government's climate goals. On the other hand, demand has risen sharply since the slump during the Corona crisis. This is mainly due to the Germany ticket.

In the first half of the year alone, around 5.6 billion people used buses and trains in local and regional transport, as the Federal Statistical Office announced a few weeks ago. That was around six percent more than in the same period the previous year. As early as 2023, the increase compared to the previous year was eight percent.

The high demand is already frequently bringing public transport to its capacity limits and beyond on busy travel weekends. Anyone who has ever traveled by train with a bicycle to the outskirts of Berlin on a sunny Saturday knows the problem. Reducing the offering would further exacerbate the situation, depending on the extent.