Trump Election: What Germany Can Do to Strengthen Green Technology and Mobility

US Climate Protection under Trump: Republican States Benefit from Biden Law

In 2022, the USA ranked second in global CO2 emissions with around 14 percent. Their CO2 emissions have decreased compared to 2007. Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act to promote renewable energies by US President Joe Biden has triggered significant investments, says Höhne. It is unlikely that Trump would completely abolish this, as particularly Republican states benefit from it. Trump's election victory is certainly not good news for climate protection, "but even Trump cannot work against the market." Renewable energies are also cheaper than fossil ones in the USA.

"Last time in government, he said he wanted to bring coal power plants forward again, but he didn't succeed."

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and Höhne, however, see a problem because one of the most important financial contributors could now be lost: Money that industrialized countries give to poorer countries for climate protection or for adaptation to climate change was a main focus of many climate conferences. A new financial target is to be negotiated in Baku.

Competition: China is a World Leader in Renewable Energies

The per capita CO2 emission in China was as high as in Germany in 2022, with around eight tons. Overall, however, it ranked first among all countries with 31 percent of CO2 emissions. China is expanding renewable energies extremely quickly, says Höhne. Furthermore, 80 percent of solar modules and 50 percent of wind turbines are produced worldwide in China.

"This will greatly contribute to climate protection, not only within China, but also outside of it." The Chinese government also early on pushed forward electric mobility.

At the same time, the country is still building coal power plants. "You cannot say China is doing nothing, it is doing a lot. Whether China is fulfilling its responsibility can be debated." But Germany's climate protection is also not sufficient for the 1.5-degree limit of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Claim: Climate change is real, but Germany won't be hit so hard

This is unlikely. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2023, the Earth's average temperature was 1.45 degrees higher than in the pre-industrial period, a new record. In Germany, according to the Federal Environment Agency, it was 2.8 degrees higher than the time from 1881 to 1910 - also because land areas warm up faster than seas.

On the latest climate risk index from Germanwatch for the years 2000 to 2019, Germany ranks 18th in light of climate impacts. More than 10,700 people died during this time due to extreme weather events - mostly as a result of heatwaves. The economic damage adjusted for purchasing power averaged 3.54 billion euros annually.

Flooding is Becoming More Frequent

"Yet the intensity of rainfalls and the frequency of floods have already increased," says Diana Rechid, head of the department for regional and local climate change at the Climate Service Center Germany (Gerics). "This year started with continuous rain in large parts of Germany and flooding along many rivers in Lower Saxony and other federal states. At Pentecost, there was flooding in Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate, and then in June in southern Germany."

The September flood, which extended from Germany to Romania, was more closely analyzed by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) scientific initiative: Climate change has roughly doubled the likelihood of such large-scale flooding in Central Europe.

Heatwave Significantly More Extreme

The heatwave in July 2019 in Western Europe would have been 1.5 to 3 degrees cooler at all locations if the climate had remained unchanged, according to WWA calculations. Due to man-made climate change, heatwaves have become significantly more likely and intense. Heat and droughts also lead to widespread damage in the German forest, which, according to the Federal Forest Inventory, has been releasing more carbon than it absorbs since 2017.

In the future, Germany will have even more hot and very hot days according to calculations by Gerics. "This has very direct effects on human health," says Rechid, not only for the elderly and infants. "This also includes people who have to work outside." According to the Federal Ministry for the Environment, climate change has also prolonged the pollen season and thus the discomfort time for allergy sufferers.

Everyone Can Do Something: Avoid Fossil Fuels

Worldwide crop failures could also affect wealthy Germany, especially the poorer people. Case in point: olive oil. "The price is rising because olive trees are yielding less due to the changing climate in the Mediterranean region," says Rechid. The price increase for many food items is widening the inequality between rich and poor.

The most important thing, of course, is to avoid fossil fuels: "If everyone says they can't do anything because they only make up one percent of the population, what do we do then?" According to Rechid, adaptation is also necessary, for example providing earlier and better understandable warnings of floods or water reservoirs for periods of drought and low water.