The VDA fears one fifth fewer vehicles due to semiconductor shortage.

The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) has warned of a massive shortage of semiconductors. If no appropriate countermeasures are taken, global production could decline by 20 percent by 2026, according to the association. This corresponds to around 18 million vehicles. This is the result of a study commissioned by the VDA. As early as 2021, the shortage led to a global production decline of 9 percent according to the study authors.

According to the study, semiconductor demand in the automotive industry will triple by 2030. Overall demand across all industries will only increase by a factor of 1.8 in the same period. This means: the growth in chip demand in the automotive industry is 1.7 times higher than the average of other industries. The automotive industry is therefore the most affected sector, the association warns. This means that the necessary supply share of the automotive industry in chips will increase to 14 percent of global semiconductor capacities by 2030. The current market share is 8 percent. The high demand is due in particular to the rise of electromobility and an increasing share of driver assistance systems and function expansions up to autonomous driving, the association notes for comparison.
 
Great demand for chips over 90 nanometers
For the automotive industry, chips larger than 90 nanometers are of great importance. According to the study, around 60 percent of the automotive industry’s chip demand will fall on this node size by 2030. Currently, however, less than 20 percent of the announced investment expenditures in the global chip industry by 2025 are being made in node sizes of 65 nanometers or larger.

Currently, the focus of funding and investments is on components of 7 nanometers or smaller, such as microprocessors with higher computing power and improved energy efficiency at the same time. Another study result: the automotive industry will become the third most important chip customer by 2030, after mobile communications and data storage. China has already recognized this. According to the study, Chinese semiconductor companies in particular are investing in node sizes of 90 nanometers or larger to support domestic automotive companies.

Additional production capacities needed

To counteract the imminent sustainable production decline in Europe and make the supply chain significantly more resilient, additional production capacities in automotive-relevant node sizes need to be expanded in Europe. The message is "Expand, expand, expand" along a comprehensible concept using pragmatic approval procedures.

“The EU Chips Act must now be followed by urgent actions. Europe must now invest in the production of automotive-relevant chips and ramp up the production of large chips. This is the only way to minimize semiconductor dependence on Asia and strengthen the resilience of the German and European automotive industry. And only then can the German and European automotive industry continue to take on a global leadership role in the future, secure prosperity, and advance climate-neutral mobility,” appeals
VDA President Hildegard Müller.