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T&E Study: FDP Blockade Jeopardizes Battery Production
According to a new study by the European environmental umbrella organization Transport & Environment (T&E), 80 percent of the lithium-ion battery production capacities planned in Germany are at risk of delays, cuts, or even complete termination. The endangered projects include Tesla in Berlin and Northvolt in Schleswig-Holstein, according to the analysis. Both companies are currently considering producing in the USA instead.
"The current threats from the FDP to overturn the combustion engine phase-out send a dangerous signal to the industry," warns the NGO.
Germany must primarily signal predictability and stability. In addition, EU-wide support for expanding battery production and faster approval processes are necessary to retain projects that would otherwise follow the lure of U.S. subsidies. Across Europe, over two-thirds (68 percent) of the planned production is at risk – the production capacities of battery cells for about 18 million electric cars (approx. 1.2 TWh) have been rated as medium to high risk. Without this expansion of capacities, Europe will not be able to meet its domestic battery demand by 2030 and will be dependent on imports from non-European competitors.
Information evaluated, investments at risk
For the study, T&E analyzed publicly available information on the 50 gigafactories planned in Europe based on the criteria: financing, approvals, secured location, and companies' connections to the USA.
"Battery production in the EU is caught in the crossfire between the USA and China. Europe must act to avoid falling behind. But Germany risks dismantling one of the central pillars of EU climate legislation. The current threats from the transport minister to overturn the combustion engine phase-out at the last minute do not provide the industry with the needed planning certainty. Chancellor Scholz urgently needs to speak up – for the climate and Europe as a battery location," explained Sebastian Bock, Managing Director of T&E-Germany.
For Germany, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the stakes are highest should battery manufacturers change their plans. With Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin-Grünheide, which is also highly controversial ecologically, there is the greatest risk that production in Europe will be delayed. The company recently announced it would shift the focus of its current cell production to the USA to benefit from the subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). For the planned Northvolt Gigafactory in Heide, the risk is moderate as the company has only secured partial funding and has not yet started construction. Additionally, Northvolt’s CEO mentioned that the company might prioritize an expansion in the USA. Italvolt, whose CEO also founded the failed British startup Britishvolt, risks being postponed in favor of its sister project, Statevolt in California. To avoid the same fate as Britishvolt, the planned Gigafactory in the West Midlands region of the UK still needs to find an investor. According to the study, the planned locations of InoBat in Serbia and Spain are also at risk. The company recently received a joint-venture offer from an American company in Indiana.
New investments in Europe are collapsing
Europe's share of global new investments in lithium-ion battery production plummeted from 41 percent in 2021 to a meager 2 percent in 2022, according to BloombergNEF. Investments in the USA and China continued to rise. European companies have already announced plans to expand in the USA. T&E stated that the limited resources of companies to expand production and the scarce supply of raw materials make the race for battery cell production between the USA and Europe a zero-sum game.
“Europe’s response must be oriented towards the US Inflation Reduction Act – we need clear focus, simple procedures, and visibility. A central fund that all member states can access should prioritize value chains for batteries, renewable energies, and smart grids. Without a solid industrial policy that focuses on expanding production and rewarding ecologically sustainable projects, the EU is not competitive,” warned Sebastian Bock.
On March 14, the EU Commission will present its Net-Zero Industrial Act, aimed at counteracting the tax advantages and subsidies of the IRA for relocating battery supply chains to the USA. T&E called for production targets, tax reliefs, and subsidies to increase battery cell production while ensuring full compliance with European environmental standards. A green agenda is also needed to simplify approval procedures for projects in Europe, the appeal continued.
Translated automatically from German.
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