T&E Study: Electric Cars Require Fewer Raw Materials Than Combustion Engines

In the meantime, various studies and investigations by vehicle manufacturers have shown that electric cars achieve a better CO2 balance over their lifetime than internal combustion engines. However, their "backpack" weighs heavily due to the raw materials used in the batteries. For example, a study commissioned by ADAC, ÖAMTC, and FIA on estimated greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy consumption in the life cycle assessment of passenger car-based transport systems certifies mid-range vehicles a CO2 advantage over diesel vehicles only at the end of their life cycle. Mazda argues similarly with the MX-30, which only gains an advantage over the Mazda 3 Skyactiv-Diesel thanks to its small battery. This advantage remains narrow even if the battery is replaced after 160,000 kilometers. Batteries are still considered major raw material consumers, partly using rare earths.

Battery technology is advancing rapidly – and this reduces CO2 emissions in production

The fact that electric cars are better in terms of CO2 emissions during operation is mainly due to the much higher efficiency of electric machines, which exceed 90 percent, while even the best internal combustion engines can barely reach the 50 percent mark. But the overall balance of electric cars is also getting better: A 2019 study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Innovation and Systems Research, published under the title "The Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions Balance of Electric Vehicles in Germany" in 2019, found that an electric battery vehicle (BEV) purchased in Germany shows significant greenhouse gas (GHG) savings over its average usage period of 13 years. Fraunhofer determined savings of 28 percent compared to a luxury diesel car and up to 42 percent when comparing a small electric car with a gasoline-powered small car, based on the electricity mix in Germany. However, Fraunhofer assumes that "the significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions already achieved in the past in electricity generation will continue in the future." Nevertheless, they are cautious and argue that this assumption is only "predicted according to the politically set goals of the federal government and various scientific studies." In fact, the CO2 balance in electricity generation in Germany has been declining for years.

Key point raw materials: Gasoline is burned and produces CO2 – but the battery can be completely recycled!

The T&E study becomes interesting when it comes to the raw material consumption of electric and internal combustion vehicles. T&E includes the generation and combustion of gasoline or diesel in the balance sheet. The internal combustion engine irretrievably converts the "raw material crude oil" into exhaust gas. In electric cars, batteries lose storage capacity over the entire lifespan of a car and definitely need to be replaced. However, even the internal combustion engine is not free from wear and partial replacement needs over such a long period. Ideally, batteries have a second life in a stationary storage system, and their raw materials can be used again to a large extent as raw materials for new batteries thanks to closed recycling loops. At the time of recycling, the battery has already been in the car for 10 to 15 years, and according to Nissan, second-life applications can extend its lifespan to up to 25 years. Additionally, batteries are usually built into the car in such a way that they can be easily removed and, if necessary, repaired in parts.

New technologies and initial returns will reduce raw material needs

As demand for electric cars increases, so does the need for raw materials. The same was true for smartphones, but no one seemed to mind. According to the T&E study, this can also be managed, as new technologies require fewer raw materials and significantly fewer or no rare earths per kilowatt-hour produced. T&E estimates that the demand for lithium will halve from 2020 to 2030 (from 0.10 kg/kWh to 0.05 kg/kWh). The need for the "problematic" cobalt is expected to decrease by 75 percent (0.03 kg/kWh instead of 0.13 kg/kWh) as battery manufacturers increasingly use nickel, whose demand is expected to decrease less (from 0.48 kg/kWh to 0.39 kg/kWh). An argument of the study is that future batteries will be made from other, less critical raw materials. Battery manufacturers are primarily working on reducing the use of expensive raw materials and rare earths. This development will also continue.

A further increasing recycling rate is crucial

Moreover, the authors of the study anticipate increasing recycling rates: EU draft laws envisage that in the future 90% of lithium (currently 70%) as well as 98% instead of the current 95% of cobalt and nickel from old batteries will be used for the production of new batteries. As a result, the proportion of newly introduced material decreases. Thus, the amount of lithium that is not reused would decrease by a factor of three, and for nickel, cobalt, and copper it would be 2.5 times less. However, with the ramp-up of battery electric vehicles, ambitious recycling targets by 2035 also lead to a temporarily manageable reduction in the demand for primary raw materials. According to the study, this would result in only six percent less lithium, two percent less cobalt, and one percent less nickel. This is also because by then, several batteries that are now being installed in cars will still be in use in the car or in secondary storage, and the entire recycling cycles still need to be established. On the other hand, it can be assumed that in the future more and more batteries will be available for recycling, but until market saturation is reached, the demand for electric cars is likely to continue to rise sharply.

There are no raw material supply problems with recycling

According to T&E, there are enough raw materials: European lithium reserves alone would be enough for about 200 million electric cars by 2030 – but only for 20 million without recycling. There is no problem with nickel: The nickel is sufficient for 17 billion electric car batteries (300 million without recycling) and cobalt for 500 million – but only for 10 million without recycling. To grasp these numbers: In Europe, more than 250 million passenger cars were registered for the first time in 2017. In 2019, nearly 1,250,000 cars were newly registered in total, while in the US the number oscillates between 16 and 17 million units, including light trucks and pickups.

What does this mean?

The battery pack of future electric vehicles will get smaller and the electricity mix will become greener. However, the efficiency of battery-electric vehicles will largely depend on the latter. This is why the results on the efficiency of electric vehicles vary across different studies. The effort of extracting and processing crude oil for internal combustion engines, along with the fact that this crude oil literally evaporates, is often neglected. Especially since the weak efficiency of internal combustion engines can only be marginally improved.

Although the production of batteries indeed requires a lot of energy, which largely consumes their higher efficiency, they can be recycled, whereas oil simply disappears after "consumption," or rather, it does not disappear but is elsewhere: As climate-damaging CO2 in the atmosphere. Therefore, it is now up to the electricity mix and battery manufacturing to further improve the balance of electric vehicles – and unlike internal combustion engines, which have made huge strides over the last 135 years and are now almost maxed out, batteries and electric vehicles still have untapped potential ahead!