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T&E Study: E-fuels not competitive even in 2035

According to a study, operating a truck with e-diesel would cost around 47 percent more than its battery-electric counterpart by 2035. The hopes of the proponents are thus dwindling more and more, after the EU recently de facto dismissed the use for passenger cars. Focus on ships and airplanes.

It's never worth it: Even used trucks retrofitted to run on e-fuels would be more expensive to operate in 2035 than brand new fully electric vehicles. (Graphic: T&E)
It's never worth it: Even used trucks retrofitted to run on e-fuels would be more expensive to operate in 2035 than brand new fully electric vehicles. (Graphic: T&E)
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Johannes Reichel
von Claus Bünnagel

By 2035, purchasing and operating a long-distance truck with pure e-diesel would cost 47 percent more than a comparable battery-electric truck. This is according to the latest study by the NGO Transport & Environment (T&E). The main reason is that the lower energy and maintenance costs of a battery-electric truck quickly offset the higher acquisition costs. Vehicles powered by e-fuels, on the other hand, would be significantly more expensive due to the high cost of a liter of e-fuel.

Even in the Optimistic Scenario, More Expensive

The study compares the prices of e-fuels in various scenarios, and even in the most optimistic scenario, an e-fuel drive is still 15% more expensive than the battery-electric counterpart. This scenario envisions the use of e-fuels in a used truck and compares it with an electric one at high battery and charging costs.

"Cost is a crucial factor for road freight companies, which is why battery-electric trucks are the way of the future. E-fuels are a desperate attempt by the fuel industry to save itself at the expense of shippers who operate on thin margins. Why impose expensive e-fuels on them when there is a cleaner and cheaper solution? Europe recently announced for good reason that it will not use e-fuels for cars, so we should take the same path for trucks,” demands Max Mollière, data analyst for e-mobility at T&E.

More Greenhouse Gas Emissions

In a typical case, a truck running on e-diesel would emit almost three times more greenhouse gas emissions over its lifetime than a battery-electric one powered by regular grid electricity. In a best-case scenario, where 100% renewable energy is used to produce e-fuel and charge e-trucks, an e-diesel truck still emits 41% more. Despite the higher manufacturing emissions due to battery production, e-fuel trucks emit significantly more GHG emissions (GHG = greenhouse gas) during their lifetime than pure electric trucks. This is because most emissions occur during the driving phase and trucks have a high mileage.

Too Little E-Fuel

Concawe, the research group of the oil industry, has modeled that European production of e-fuels for road transport will reach around 6 million tonnes ROE (ROE = crude oil units) in 2035. This would only cover 6% of the fuel needs of trucks in 2035. Current projections for the import of e-fuels for transport only consider the import of e-kerosene and e-ammonia, which would not be applicable for road transport. In a recent report, the Hydrogen Council predicted that by 2050 the only hydrogen-derived fuels to be imported into Europe will be synthetic kerosene and ammonia. If these 6 million tonnes ROE of e-fuels are used for trucks, the remaining amount for aviation and shipping would not be sufficient to decarbonize these two sectors, where other technologies such as electric and hydrogen ships or planes are neither feasible nor scalable, according to T&E.

"After their attempt with cars, the fossil fuel industry hopes to revive e-fuels in trucks. The claim that this technology is a scalable solution for decarbonization is false for cars – and new insights show that it is likely to be false here as well. They will jeopardize the transition to electric trucks and prolong diesel technology much longer than our planet can bear," warns Mollière.

The European Commission wants to revise CO2 standards for trucks by the end of 2022. Ahead of this proposal, T&E calls for:

  • No consideration of fuels in the regulation of new vehicle sales
  • Ending the sale of all new combustion engine trucks by 2035

The complete T&E study in English can be found in our attachment under this report.

Translated automatically from German.
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