T&E Analysis: Transport sector is transforming three times slower than the economy in general

By 2030, traffic will account for almost half of all greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. This is the result of a new analysis by the European environmental umbrella organization Transport & Environment (T&E). Since 1990, traffic-related emissions in Europe have increased by more than a quarter. According to the T&E analysis "State of European Transport," they will continue to rise, while emissions from the overall economy are already decreasing. Europe must start taking the problem of traffic emissions seriously if it wants to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, says T&E.

Decarbonization significantly slower than in the rest of the economy

After the transport sector reached its peak emissions in 2007, the sector is decarbonizing three times more slowly than the rest of the economy. Under current climate policy measures, the share of transport in total greenhouse gas emissions could increase from today's 29 percent to 44 percent in 2030. Traffic-related emissions in the EU currently amount to more than 1,000 MtCO2e, equivalent to the total emissions of Germany and the Netherlands. While it is unlikely that traffic-related emissions will reach their recent peak from 2019 again, Europe will not succeed in achieving net zero emissions by 2050 if no additional measures are taken.

"At the European level, the same picture emerges as in Germany: the transport sector remains the problem child. Other sectors are now managing to decarbonize three times as fast. By 2030, almost half of Europe's emissions will come from the mobility sector. Instead of sabotaging and blocking climate protection measures already agreed in Brussels, Germany should finally show leadership again and do everything in its power to ensure that the transport sector reduces emissions as quickly as possible," explains Sebastian Bock, Managing Director of T&E Germany.

Petrol and Diesel Account for 40 Percent of Emissions

Cars powered by petrol and diesel are responsible for over 40 percent of all traffic emissions. Dependency on cars has increased since the 1990s, evidenced by the growing vehicle fleet and highway construction. Only recently has there been a decline in average car emissions as more electric vehicles enter the market. Aviation emissions have doubled in the past 30 years – faster than any other transport sector.

Additionally, contrails can triple the climate impact of flying. In the analysis, T&E examines the impact of EU climate regulations on the burgeoning transport emissions and concludes that they will reduce transport emissions by only 25 percent in 2040 and 62 percent in 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

Cars, vans, and trucks purchased through the mid-2030s will continue to burn petrol and diesel on European roads for years. Shipping companies have little incentive to improve their operational efficiency, and the demand for flights, fueled by growing airport capacity, negates all emission savings from greener fuels in this decade.