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T&E Analysis: German Truck Manufacturers Lead Globally in Decarbonization

At least according to their decarbonization plans, German manufacturers are ahead. However, the NGO is calling for stricter EU fleet limits for trucks to remain future-proof and not to lose ground to Tesla and BYD in the medium term. While Volvo is the leader in the electric market, it lacks a clear exit date.

The German-Swedish brand Scania pursues the most ambitious decarbonization plans worldwide, analyzed the environmental organization T&E. | Photo: Scania
The German-Swedish brand Scania pursues the most ambitious decarbonization plans worldwide, analyzed the environmental organization T&E. | Photo: Scania
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Johannes Reichel

The German truck manufacturers Mercedes-Benz Trucks, VW subsidiaries Scania and MAN, as well as Tesla and BYD, have the most ambitious goals worldwide for zero-emission commercial vehicles. This is the result of an analysis by the European environmental umbrella organization Transport & Environment (T&E). Accordingly, the three brands, in Scania's case "German-Swedish," plan to sell only electric or hydrogen-powered trucks from 2040 onwards.

The NGO evaluated the manufacturers based on their decarbonization plans, but warned that despite current efforts, an EU-wide tightening of truck fleet limits is necessary to ensure that European manufacturers remain future-proof and do not lose market share and competitive edge to American and Chinese competitors.

Scania has the most ambitious goals

Scania leads the list of truck manufacturers in terms of climate ambition and strategy. Although the company has only committed to selling half of its new vehicles with electric or hydrogen drive from 2030, it is pursuing a very promising industrial strategy. The second-ranked manufacturer, Mercedes-Benz Trucks, has announced that 60 percent of its new vehicles sold from 2030 will be emission-free. However, there is a significant gap between this target and the industrial planning. Mercedes-Benz Trucks is lagging behind in terms of batteries, as the supply of battery raw materials still needs to be secured. In fourth place is the German manufacturer MAN, which plans to produce fewer electric models and has a weaker emission target for 2030.

Deductions: Volvo and Renault still investing in gas

Volvo Trucks, the current market leader in selling zero-emission trucks in Europe and the USA, also driven by the Chinese stakeholder Geely, surprisingly lands only in the middle field. Although the manufacturer has publicly promised that 70% of its new vehicles sold will be zero-emission by 2030, the company has not provided a clear timeline for when all new vehicles sold will be 100% zero-emission, justifying the NGO's ranking. Moreover, Volvo Trucks is investing in gas and biofuels that emit CO2, the analysts criticize.

The sister brand within the group Renault Trucks also ranks merely in the middle field of the ranking. Although the manufacturer promises that by 2030 half of the new vehicles sold will be zero-emission, it also relies on gas and biofuels, echoing the criticism of the T&E experts. Conversely, IVECO and DAF are ranked poorly according to the organization's exit ambitions. Both companies do not follow long-term goals and plan to invest very little in battery supply chains and charging infrastructure, the reasoning states.

"All European truck manufacturers claim to want to become more environmentally friendly. In reality, there is a large gap in the truck industry between manufacturers who have a plan for full decarbonization and those who do not. To maintain German and European competitiveness on an international level, we need stricter regulations like the EU-wide fleet limits for trucks. They ensure that our economic and industrial location remains future-proof," appeals Kim Kohlmeyer, Head of Road Freight Transport at T&E Germany.

European truck manufacturers are in tough competition with Tesla and BYD. The non-European competitors have already proven that they can increase the production of zero-emission passenger cars in a short time - the same could happen to the truck industry, the organization warns. Additionally, international manufacturers have established strong battery supply chains and secured raw material supplies.

 

Stricter regulations could push the industry, not hinder it

California's sales ban on diesel trucks from 2036 and the US Inflation Reduction Act could lead manufacturers to prioritize investments in the US and suspend or cancel production plans in Europe, warns the organization. The EU must signal investment security in Europe by revising its fleet limits for heavy commercial vehicles. Stricter regulations for 2030 are particularly crucial, according to T&E, to create clear incentives for manufacturers to promptly adapt their industrial strategies.

“EU governments should be alarmed: Tesla and BYD are about to continue their success story in the passenger car market with trucks. California has just sent a clear signal to truck manufacturers. To prevent investments in production and batteries from migrating, the EU must follow suit and provide manufacturers with clear fleet limits for trucks to ensure investment security,” explained Kim Kohlmeyer.

The NGO recently launched the Your Heavy Duty campaign aiming to achieve stricter CO2 reduction targets for European truck manufacturers. This is intended to promote investments, expand offerings, and ensure manufacturers' promises for emission-free trucks are met. The campaign calls on EU lawmakers to:

  • Set a CO2 reduction target of –65 percent for the year 2030, in line with what leading manufacturers have already announced.
  • Set a CO2 reduction target of –100 percent for the year 2035 for trucks to ensure that no environmentally harmful vehicles will be on Europe’s roads by 2050. Without similarly strict measures as California’s ban from 2036, the EU risks falling behind as major truck manufacturers could withdraw their investments from Europe.
  • Exclude biofuels and e-fuels from fleet limits, as they are expensive and unsuitable solutions for decarbonizing truck transport. Truck manufacturers that oppose any inclusion of biofuels and e-fuels in the regulation make up over 90 percent of the EU market.
  • Extend the scope of the regulation to small trucks, so-called work vehicles, and uncertified vehicles, so that all new trucks are regulated.
Translated automatically from German.
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