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T&E Analysis: German Climate Budget Excludes Air and Sea Transport
The German emissions budget with its sector target for transportation does not capture all the emissions caused by Germany. This is stated in a new study by the environmental umbrella organization Transport & Environment (T&E). The Climate Protection Act currently only includes domestic flights and shipping routes, the NGO criticizes. The intra-European and international emissions, which constitute over 90 percent of the total emissions of air and sea transport, are not considered. If these were included, transportation emissions in 2021 would be almost 20 percent higher. In 2019, before the pandemic-related decline in air travel, they were even 25 percent higher, the organization warns.
“The current climate balance is only part of the truth. The new federal government strives for a climate-neutral future for the country. Nevertheless, it omits more than a quarter of transportation emissions in the recently published emissions estimate. Germany’s international aviation and maritime emissions must be included in the national climate budget. The United Kingdom has already shown that this is possible," argues Silke Bölts, Policy Officer for Aviation at T&E.
The new roadmap "The True Climate Impact of German Aviation and Maritime Transport" aims to show a path to the decarbonization of all German shipping and aviation emissions by 2050. Three approaches are seen as central to this.
Rapid Market Launch of Green Fuels for Shipping and Aviation
A central solution is green hydrogen-based fuels such as e-kerosene, e-ammonia, or green hydrogen itself. Ambitious targets for e-kerosene at the European level are necessary for aviation. For this, a blending target by 2025 is required under the European ReFuelEU regulation. By 2030, the share of e-kerosene in fuel consumption must increase to 2 percent EU-wide. In the FuelEU Maritime regulation for shipping, the emission reduction targets proposed by the EU Commission should be significantly tightened so that climate neutrality can be achieved in shipping by 2050 at the latest. Additionally, a sub-quota of RFNBO of 6 percent is needed in 2030. The use of LNG should not be promoted under the FuelEU Maritime framework.
Efficiency Increases in Shipping and Aviation
Increases in fuel efficiency for ships are possible and implementable. The most important efficiency measures include improved propulsion systems and engines, flow optimization, and the use of wind through modern sail forms. According to the roadmap, a cumulative saving of 17.3 Mt CO2 can be achieved through increased efficiency by 2035. Further efficiency improvements in aviation can also lead to significant emission reductions. Possible sources of fuel efficiency include improved operational procedures, increased aerodynamics, and lighter composite materials.
Decline in Air Travel Demand Unavoidable in the Short to Medium Term
Electric and hydrogen-powered airplanes would significantly contribute to emission reduction only from around 2040. Production capacities for green, hydrogen-based fuels need to be scaled before they can be used on a large scale in aircraft.
"The technological delay and decades of regulatory inaction make a decline in air travel demand unavoidable for short- to medium-term emission reductions," judges the NGO
The roadmap assumes that business travel will halve by 2050 compared to 2019. The decline in business travel can save a total of around 199 Mt CO2 compared to the modeled baseline. For leisure travel, a stagnation of previous growth is needed so that private flight volumes remain at the 2019 level by 2050. A fair pricing of flying, which objectively reflects the climate impact of these economic activities, is considered central for this.
Reducing Emissions by a Third in Air and Sea by 2030
With the measures proposed by the NGO, emissions from aviation in Germany could be reduced by 31.5 percent and for shipping by 38.6 percent by 2030, with climate neutrality achieved by 2050.
Translated automatically from German."The inclusion of international emissions in the German Climate Protection Act makes complete climate neutrality possible. The decarbonization of aviation and shipping is possible and absolutely necessary. There are solutions, but we need political incentives now to move forward quickly. Only then will the climate protection emergency program live up to its name," appeals Silke Bölts.
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