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The aviation industry is heading towards a substantial supply gap with green kerosene and is at risk of missing its climate targets for this reason. This is according to the study "From Feedstock to Flight: How to unlock the potential of SAF" by Strategy&, the global strategy consultancy of PwC. By 2030, the industry may need about 46 million tons of so-called Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) worldwide to meet regulatory requirements and its own targets on the way to Net Zero. However, according to calculations by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), at the current pace of infrastructure and refinery expansion, only a maximum of 24 million tons of SAF can be produced by 2030, which corresponds to a gap of 22 million tons of SAF - almost 50 percent of the demand. To close this gap and still achieve their climate targets, the industry would need to invest at least 100 billion euros by 2030, according to the Strategy& study. By 2035, the investment need will rise to 215 billion euros, and by 2050 it will be more than 1,000 billion euros.
SAF indispensable for green aviation
Currently, aviation contributes about 2.5 percent to global CO2 emissions. However, the industry aims to operate carbon-neutral by 2050. To achieve this goal despite increasing air traffic, many airlines are turning to SAFs - a collective term for biological and synthetic fuels that can also be used to refuel conventional aircraft and save 66 to 94 percent of CO2 emissions. Several SAF types are differentiated, with two types being examined in more detail in the study. HEFA-SAF (Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids) is obtained from bio-waste, oils, and lipids and can already be produced in larger quantities, while PtL-SAF (Power-to-Liquid) is based on hydrogen, saves more emissions but is technically less mature and likely to be significantly more expensive. Aviation needs large quantities of both types to achieve its climate goals. Additionally, regulatory quotas apply: For example, fuel at EU airports must contain at least 6 percent SAF by 2030. Japan stipulates a SAF share of 10 percent for international flights by 2030. According to the study, to achieve the net-zero target, 100-200 SAF refineries would need to start operations by 2030.
"Green kerosene is currently the only economically viable technology to enable more climate-friendly flying. However, the industry is lagging behind its own aspirations and regulatory requirements in expanding the necessary infrastructure and ramping up production capacities for various reasons," says Dr. Jan H. Wille, co-author of the study and partner at Strategy& Germany and PwC Aerospace and Defence Leader in the EMEA region.
"We are currently observing enormous uncertainty among all stakeholders, regarding future regulations, reporting and accounting, as well as the availability of required raw materials, the scalability of production technologies, and investment security. At the same time, a certain inertia has set in, as everyone is waiting for the steps of the other stakeholders and political regulations before taking action themselves."
Out of the Supply Gap in Five Steps
To overcome these hurdles, the study proposes a five-part action plan that applies to both SAF types. First, the industry should demonstrate the scalability of refineries, for example through successful pilot plants. It also focuses on ensuring the supply of the raw materials needed for SAF production. For HEFA-SAF, this mainly involves bio-waste, and for PtL-SAF, large quantities of inexpensive renewable energy and CO2. Third, on this basis, financial risks can be minimized, for example through subsidies or cooperation models. International standards, clear regulatory guidelines, and globally recognized SAF certification are other important steps. Finally, the industry must convince the public of the benefits of the technology.
"Aviation is currently undergoing a transformation as profound as that of the automotive industry. In the coming decades, entirely new value chains and business models with enormous growth opportunities will develop here as well. This starts with the collection and processing of bio-waste, extends to the manufacturing of refinery equipment, and includes SAF traders," says Dirk Niemeier, co-author of the study and Director at Strategy& Germany.
Translated automatically from German."For suppliers entering the market now, there are great opportunities: Given the SAF supply gap, emerging quotas, and the resulting growing demand, the market is expected to continue to develop as a seller's market, which could allow producers to achieve high margins. However, for this new SAF ecosystem to develop, a swift and concerted effort from all stakeholders, driven by a shared vision and a touch of pragmatism, is needed. This also includes openly addressing and curbing potential negative effects, such as the misuse of food resources for the production of bio-waste for SAF production, as early as possible."
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