Study: Traffic Transition Could Create More Jobs

The Rosa Luxemburg Foundation has demonstrated in a new study how the mobility transition could ultimately create more jobs than would be lost in the traditional automotive and supplier industries due to the transformation to electromobility. This counters the argument of large portions of the industry from car manufacturers and suppliers, who warn of massive job losses due to the transition. In the 400-page work "Spurwechsel. Studies on Mobility Industries, Employment Potentials, and Alternative Production," the authors, led by Mario Candeias, Director of the Rosa Luxemburg Institute for Social Analysis, examine in two scenarios how the mobility transition could even be used to create good and qualified jobs.

The researchers did not just sit at their desks but went into the businesses of the automotive, rail, and bus industries, held workshops with employees and managers, and sought alignment with the union ver.di as well as with the activists of "Fridays for Future." The aim was no less than to test a "bridge" between unions and the climate movement.

The authors calculate two scenarios:

• Scenario 1: Doubling the numbers in public transportation and rail as well as in cycling, which could result in an additional 214,000 job potentials.
• Scenario 2: Increasing passenger numbers by a factor of 2.5, which could lead to 314,000 additional jobs.

However, the authors warn that it is necessary not only to have a powertrain transition but also to implement a "moderate mobility transition" in Scenario 1. It is not enough to just switch from combustion engines to electric drives. For every 10,000 new jobs, 10,000 could be created in the bicycle and electric bus industries, and as many as 100,000 new jobs in the rail industry.

For the Scenario 2 of an "ambitious mobility transition," the authors project a factor of 2.5, resulting in 215,000 to 314,000 new jobs, as more trains, buses, tracks, overhead lines, control systems, or pedelecs would be needed. The overall potential would be significantly higher if a "short full-time for all" approach were adopted, i.e., a reduction in working hours, flexibly around the 30-hour workweek. Then, a total potential of up to 323,500 to 436,500 additional jobs is seen for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Overall, this "social-ecological transformation" could thus even overcompensate for the loss of traditional jobs in the automotive industry. The RL authors expect a loss of 275,000 jobs in the direct automotive sector by 2030.

"Since the Diesel scandal and because of the company's handling of employees, this feeling of 'We Benz people' is no longer there. If I had similar financial opportunities and a similarly interesting activity, I would also go to the railway," the study quotes an engineer at Daimler as saying.

Detroit scenario not imminent

The infamous "Detroit scenario," alluding to the industrial devastation in the once auto metropolis in the USA, can thus be averted. However, the authors around Candeias even sort themselves into what the public transportation companies have set as their target with their "moderate" approach. The Association of Transport Companies (VDV) aims for a 25 percent increase by 2030.

"It needs independent and broader concepts and practices for a real and just mobility transition and a socio-ecological transformation of the mobility industries. This can only be achieved together, with workers and unions from different sectors, along with the environmental and climate movement, the societal and political left, and critical science. This is nothing new. But it's about time," the authors still state.

The transformation is seen to be in full swing. The keywords for the restructuring of the automotive industry in Germany are transnationalization, intensified competition and relocations, the next wave of rationalization (Industry 4.0), digitalization of mobility, and the necessary and initiated ecological modernization, which includes the shift to e-mobility. Each of these aspects is associated with pressure on wage standards, wages, and working conditions, with increasing demands and work intensification, uncertainty, and job losses in the order of several hundred thousand. It is highly unlikely that in this capital-driven transformation, the interests of workers will be protected or the environment and climate will be adequately safeguarded, they warn.

"If you start with something like cheaper public transportation – that interests people. Then you can also mention in the second subordinate clause that this step is also intended to encourage people to leave their cars at home to protect the climate. However, then you're already in the discussion," says a confidant at Daimler.

No abandoning of motorized individual transport

Traffic is responsible for one-fifth of Germany's CO2 emissions. While emissions are at least decreasing in all other sectors, CO2 emissions in traffic have even increased by 170 million tons since 1990, the authors further outline. The 1.5-ton electric SUVs now being built are not really an ecological solution either, as the authors let a line worker voice his opinion.

"My car doesn't become more environmentally friendly just because I put six bags of cement in the back. It's as absurd as the corporations’ electric strategy to equip two-and-a-half-ton cars with batteries. You don't need to study physics to get that this is nonsense. It's about profit maximization and grabbing government subsidies. It has nothing to do with climate protection, apart from the marketing," quotes a works council chairman in the VW plant in Kassel.