Study: Climate Neutrality Achievable by 2045 - If the Transportation Sector Cooperates

Disarming: "Path Without Mandated Behavioral Changes"

Furthermore, they describe a path "without mandated behavioral changes," as the authors emphasize. They actually predict ongoing behavioral changes among consumers, such as in meat consumption. Graichen even considers faster transformation in global competition to be an advantage for the German industry, which would save the atmosphere around one billion tons of CO2 in total. Essential levers for additional acceleration are still seen in faster expansion of renewable energies, quicker ramp-up of hydrogen technology, accelerated electrification in transportation, further strengthening of building renovations, and larger market shares of plant-based instead of animal protein products after 2030, i.e., in the nutrition sector.

"The answer to the question of whether we can achieve climate neutrality before 2050 is a clear 'Yes'. Germany would thereby have the chance to become the leading market and provider for climate protection technologies in the global dynamic towards climate neutrality. Whether we will already be climate neutral by 2045 is ultimately a question of our collective political will and our capability for societal design," the scientists summarize their findings, which are likely to spark conversation just in time for the heated phase of the federal election campaign.

It was already clear in the first 2050 study that to reach this goal, the last coal-fired power plants would have to be shut down by 2030, not as agreed in the Coal Exit Law by 2038. The share of renewables would then have to be at 70 percent, primarily from wind and solar, which would have to be massively ramped up. Solar energy would need to double its deployment rate, and wind energy would need to increase steadily but continuously, without periods of stagnation as seen in recent years.

Electric Power Speed: 14 Million E-Cars and 6 Million Heat Pumps

This would not least support the 14 million electric cars expected by 2030, including six million heat pumps. Road freight transport would need to be 25 percent emission-free. In the industry, fossil fuels would have to be replaced by green hydrogen, giving renewables a key role. This could also be used in airplanes, ships, or heavy trucks, making freight transport more climate-friendly. Additionally, technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) from the atmosphere and storage for emissions that currently cannot be avoided, such as in agriculture, would come into play.

The head of the Climate Neutrality Foundation and former state secretary for the environment and economy, Rainer Baake, diagnosed a race against time. From his perspective, it is about the "right mix of speed and realism." The focus on technologies to solve the climate crisis demands speed.

"Those who run at a leisurely pace do not gain any lead," warned the former top official.