Solar cells, e-battery technology, and wind turbines drive the economy

The International Energy Agency, based in Paris, has released its second report on the "Net Zero Roadmap," which outlines a pathway for the world economy to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The first edition of the report in 2021 was a novelty for an organization more known for its detailed data than for its normative outlook on the future. Although this year's report does not note immediate progress in emissions, it remains optimistic. As the authors state in their introduction, "the pathway to 1.5 degrees Celsius has become narrower, but the growth of clean energies keeps it open."

Photovoltaic Expansion Booms

The IEA describes solar technology, electric vehicles, battery storage, and heat pumps as "mass production technologies" because they are already being produced in the millions, benefiting from strong standardization, and manufacturers can bring new and improved versions to market in the shortest time possible. The photovoltaic capacity installed worldwide between 2015 (the year the Paris Agreement was signed) and 2022 corresponds approximately to the entire installed power generation in Europe. The sales of heat pumps rose to a level that, according to IEA, "roughly corresponds to the entire heating capacity in Russia."

IEA draws comparisons to other milestones in technology history

This year, the IEA provides some useful analogies by comparing EV batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines to three innovative technologies from the past, such as the groundbreaking development leap in automobile manufacturing with Ford's Model T from 1910 to 1920, the production of U.S. airplanes during World War II, and gas turbines from 1970 to 1980. The report compares these groups based on two factors: the average annual increase in the deployment of each technology in its key decade and the decline in annual costs in the same decade. The result is complex but insightful.

EV battery development gains enormously

According to the IEA, EV batteries, for example, are comparable to the fastest-growing historical economic sector, U.S. airplanes during World War II. Solar panels grew faster from 2010 to 2020 than gas turbines in the 1970s, but less quickly than the sales of the Model T a century earlier. Onshore wind turbines grew at roughly the same pace as gas turbines, and offshore wind turbines grew somewhat faster.