Roland Berger study: Headwinds for the bike industry - Tailwinds for CO2-free mobility

The European bicycle industry continues to face strong headwinds, while customers can look forward to high discounts. According to a study by the consulting firm Roland Berger, sales figures for new bikes will remain significantly below the levels of the record year 2021 in the next two years, when 22.1 million bikes were sold across Europe and a revenue of 19.7 billion euros was achieved under the sign of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Although the average price per bicycle is rising significantly due to the e-bike boom, the authors expect revenues of around 20 billion euros by 2026, which would still be below the record of 2022 (21.2 billion euros). To achieve this, 15.9 million bicycles would need to be sold. According to forecasts, it will be 15.3 million bicycles this year, with a revenue of 17.5 billion euros.

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Manufacturers are sitting on large quantities of fully assembled bicycles and expensive purchased components, while retailers are placing hardly any new orders because they, in turn, need to reduce their own stock inventories first. Recovery won't likely begin until the 2026 season, according to a market study that qualitatively surveyed 40 industry insiders. In stores, bicycles are often only saleable with high discounts.

“The current margins for me as a retailer are so low due to ongoing discount actions that it is significantly riskier to order from my bicycle brands than to forgo the additional sales,” said the managing director of a retail chain.

Because retail also ordered much less than expected at the Frankfurt flagship trade fair "Eurobike," the majority of study participants expect further sales declines. A major e-bike manufacturer is planning a 15 percent decline in volume for 2025, according to its own statements.