Rail instead of road: The climate effect of the "European Silk Road" would be immense

In a study from 2018, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) proposed the construction of a "European Silk Road". The core of the proposal is a high-speed railway network that aims to connect the industrial centers of Western Europe with the less developed eastern part of the continent. In addition to the initial feasibility study, wiiw also presented an analysis at the beginning of 2022 regarding the CO2 savings potential in passenger transport for the main route from Lyon to Moscow, which was still being considered at that time.

Now, an estimation of the CO2 savings potential for freight transport has also been developed. In light of the new geopolitical situation due to the Ukraine war, the new main route analyzed is from Lyon to Warsaw, as the original proposed route extending further via Minsk to Moscow has become obsolete.

Significant Savings Potential

The new wiiw study concludes that a high-speed rail connection from Lyon in France to the Polish capital could reduce net CO2 emissions by around 176 million tons over a lifespan of 60 years in freight transport with full train capacity. This corresponds to a saving of about 24 percent of the total emissions of the EU transport sector in one year (excluding air traffic), based on 2018 figures. This already includes the emissions that would occur during construction, operation, and maintenance. After 13 years of operation, the emissions incurred during construction would be compensated. From that point on, the project would actually help to reduce CO2 emissions.

"Considering that we are only talking about a single route with limited capacity here, the CO2 savings potential would still be significant," says Mario Holzner, co-author of the study and director of wiiw.

For comparison: 176 million tons of saved CO2 correspond to approximately the emissions of a major city with over a million inhabitants over 20 years or the CO2 emissions of the Netherlands in 2021. If the greenhouse gases saved by passenger transport on this route are also taken into account, the CO2 savings potential is likely to double.

Together with co-authors Aleksandr Arsenev and Erica Angers, Holzner assumes that the construction of such a high-speed route would massively advance the shifting of freight transport from road to rail.

"With good planning and cross-border coordination with the logistics industry, a high-speed rail connection across the continent could provide a significant boost for more climate-friendly freight transport in Europe," notes co-study author Aleksandr Arsenev.

The construction costs are estimated at 164 billion euros in 2021 prices, or about 1 percent of the EU's economic output. 

"Spread over a construction period of at least ten years and taking into account the positive economic effects, this seemingly considerable sum is put into perspective," explains co-study author Erica Angers.