Prognos Study Greenpeace / T&E: Wissing's Forecast Incorrect - Traffic to Decrease by 2051

When Federal Minister of Transport Volker Wissing (FDP) had his own ministry's report predict in March 2023 how road traffic would develop by 2051, the criticism was loud and clear. After all, the result was the same as under Wissing's predecessors (mostly CSU politicians): an increase on all routes, seven percent in passenger traffic, and even 50 percent in freight traffic. The consequence for the minister: he called, in line with his predecessors, for the "accelerated expansion of roads if we want to secure our prosperity." Subsequently, the first political decisions were made in the spring, such as the highly controversial acceleration of 145 projects in highway construction within the traffic light government, totaling nearly 1,000 kilometers in length.

Critics already harbored doubts back then, talking about a continuation of past transport policies and a "self-fulfilling prophecy." The NGOs Greenpeace and Transport & Environment wanted to know more than Wissing and commissioned a study from the Hamburg Prognos Institute, which the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on in advance and which comes to the opposite conclusion: traffic will actually decrease significantly by 2051. New plans for highways would thus be obsolete. 

"That traffic continues to increase here is a political decision by Volker Wissing - not a scientific inevitability," complains Benedikt Heyl, data analyst at T&E.

The previous forecasts from the ministry would merely represent a "continuation of the status quo," exaggerating existing trends.

"No additional meter of highway is needed, but a transport minister with the will for political change," urges Marissa Reiserer, Greenpeace mobility expert.

From her perspective, a decrease in traffic on the existing network would make further highways superfluous. Consequently, CO2 emissions from traffic would also decrease. The Prognos researchers base their forecast on different assumptions. For example, mobility will change due to the Corona crisis, as home office becomes more established. Business trips would also decrease by 30 percent, not just ten percent as with the Ministry of Transport. Prognos also assumes that expected rising gasoline and diesel prices will reduce car traffic. Meanwhile, rail and cycling will continue to increase.