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PIK sees prosperity threatened: Climate protection costs - no climate protection costs even more
The global economy is threatened, according to a new calculation, to shrink by about one-fifth by the middle of the century due to the consequences of global warming - even if the emission of climate-damaging gases were to be drastically reduced in the future. Otherwise, significantly larger economic damages than those 38 trillion US dollars per year are to be expected, as calculated by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature. These damages would be six times higher than the estimated costs for climate protection measures to limit global warming to a maximum of two degrees, write the authors.
German economy could shrink by 11 percent
The expected damages vary greatly depending on the region. The poorest countries, which are the least responsible for climate change, will be hit the hardest, according to the study. For Germany - as well as for the USA - the researchers predict a shrinking of the economy by 11 percent by the middle of the century, compared to a scenario without climate impacts. The data relates to a scenario in which it is possible to get on a path that limits global warming to less than two degrees by the end of the century. According to the United Nations, the current climate protection plans are not sufficient for this.
"For most regions, including North America and Europe, high income losses are predicted, with South Asia and Africa being the hardest hit," wrote Maximilian Kotz, one of the study's authors. "These losses are caused by a wide variety of economically relevant impacts of climate change, such as effects on agricultural yields, labor productivity, or infrastructure." Damages caused by storms or wildfires are not included, but could further increase the amount of damages.
For the calculation, the researchers evaluated data from the past 40 years from more than 1600 regions on how weather extremes have affected economic growth. Based on climate models, they calculated how these are likely to have economic impacts over the next 26 years.
Upcoming Damages Due to Already Emitted Emissions
Researcher Leonie Wenz pointed out that the expected damages are consequences of the greenhouse gases already emitted. To mitigate these, adaptation measures are needed. "Additionally, we must drastically and immediately reduce our CO₂ emissions – otherwise, economic losses in the second half of the century will be even higher and could average up to 60 percent globally by the end of the century," said Wenz.
The current calculations by the Potsdam team are surprisingly close to the projections known as the Stern Review, which economist Nicholas Stern calculated almost 20 years ago on behalf of the British government: Due to climate change, the international economy faces a decline of around 20 percent, according to the study presented in 2006. The conclusion back then was: Climate protection is expensive – but no climate protection would be much more costly.
Translated automatically from German."The urgency to act cannot be emphasized enough," said Matthias Kopp from the environmental association WWF Germany to dpa. "The longer we hesitate, the more difficult and costly it will be to mitigate the consequences of the climate and environmental crisis."
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