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Phasing out internal combustion engines in Europe by 2035 – rose-colored glasses or reality?

The die has been cast – from 2035 onwards, only emission-free or CO2-neutral cars are to be sold in Europe. We dare to fact-check and take a look across the pond to the USA: Is the end of combustion engines a reality, or are we seeing things through rose-colored glasses?

Pink balloons soar into the sky: Jessup Auto Plaza in Palm Springs sells all GM brands. For now, almost all the vehicles on the lot are combustion-engine cars. But by 2030, everything here is set to be electric. | Photo: G. Soller
Pink balloons soar into the sky: Jessup Auto Plaza in Palm Springs sells all GM brands. For now, almost all the vehicles on the lot are combustion-engine cars. But by 2030, everything here is set to be electric. | Photo: G. Soller
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Gregor Soller

Pink balloons adorn Jessup Auto Plaza in Palm Springs. All GM brands are offered there. Right at the entrance stands a new Corvette right next to a charging station – at least. But SUVs and V8s are still very popular among Americans. The era of combustion engines seems to be irretrievably coming to an end, which is why many are experiencing a kind of last-minute panic ordering. We use the presentation of the BMW i7 in Palm Springs for a fact check: Especially the West Coast in the greater Los Angeles area, which generously includes Palm Springs, is considered a "pioneering region" in terms of electromobility.

Electric models? 95 percent Tesla!

On the streets, apart from a few Teslas – mostly Model Y, you hardly see any electric cars. But surely they are with the dealers? Nope – BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche are rather pushing their icons into the spotlight: S-Class, 911, 3 Series – and the yards are almost exclusively full of combustion engines. But the interest is high, we are told upon request – however, mainly for the greater L.A. area – for the very long distances, where one can afford it, they take the adventure combustion engine SUV or straight the plane. We drive back to the hotel, where the U.S. colleagues have converted the 7 Series presentation into a “Test Fest”: Meaning – all U.S. colleagues get to drive the hottest news in the Bavarian selection. Which means a lot of Mini Cooper (combustion and SE), Rolls-Royce, as well as M3 and M4. The new 7 Series still plays a leading role – but a much smaller one than in Europe – especially since the U.S. colleagues anyhow prefer to go for the 760i xDrive... And they even brought in the Alpina version of the X7. So, the drive change in the USA doesn't come across quite convincingly yet.

VW: So far, there is only the ID.4

We continue to Volkswagen – where we find an ID.4 at one of the two charging stations. At least they are clearly marked, and the ID.4 is also prominently advertised in the showroom. However – it is hardly available, as we are told upon inquiry. The demand seems to be there, but the cars are ordered online and only pass the dealer yard briefly for handover. We don't see any on the streets... instead, all SUVs are immediately available, especially Tao, Tiguan, and Atlas Cross Sport. None of the numerous sales positions are occupied – the service team tries to advise us as best as possible over a coffee, but as mentioned, since the ID.4 is always ordered and sold digitally, it remains rather a "phantom." But yes, the demand is there, also for the ID.5, which is not yet available (inexplicably).

At the Lexus dealer next door, it is similar: numerous RX "to go" are on the lot, and yes, the electric cars are coming, we are told upon inquiry. No, they don't have a charging station yet, but the change has been initiated and is unstoppable... However, at Lexus, hybrids clearly dominate.

Sure, the customers are generally not so keen on charging, the Toyota salesman diagonally across explains to us. At least they have already installed five charging points here, one of which is currently used by a Prius Plug-in, but the bulk of sales appear to be the US bread-and-butter models RAV4 and the Tacoma pickup. And the BZ4x? Sure, it's coming, the problems with the wheels have been confirmed to us – but it will likely take until the first quarter of 2023. Do customers want it? Yes, there is demand, but the pressure among the very large Toyota customer base in the USA doesn't seem to be that high.

Subaru: The Solterra is still awaited

So quickly over to Subaru, where the Solterra, built identically to the bZ4x, will be introduced. And, double surprise: Subaru doesn't have an electric car yet, but they have already installed a charging station and Csaba Nagy, an extremely dedicated salesman, estimates the Solterra's start to be in March to April. Yes, there is general interest, but the main sales are made by Forester and Legacy Outback, which, by the way, has become the best-selling station wagon in the USA. Indeed, you see the extremely rare car in Europe very often in the States – it seems to be the only remaining station wagon at all – "also for the Outback," explains Nagy – and for that you need range and have little interest in dealing with intermediate charging. The Las Vegas-L.A. route is supposed to be completed in the summer with air conditioning and in the winter with heating without major stops, Nagy knows from his customers, and despite the pandemic and inflation, they achieve annual growth of around ten percent at the location – however, the available vehicles have also massively decreased here: where they once had up to 200 (!) models “to go,” now there are just between 15 and 20...

Hyundai and Kia: Ioniq 5 and EV6 still considered exotic

And the Koreans? The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is increasingly appearing on the West Coast, but otherwise, it's primarily the SUVs and the Elantra and Sonata sedans that drive the business – especially as US companies continue to withdraw from this segment. According to Kia, the "Forte," a four-door compact sedan, is clearly the top seller. Robust, affordable, and for many, the first affordable new car. Added to this are many SUVs. Unlike in Europe, the Soul is only available as a combustion engine, while the Niro is only available as a hybrid in their lineup. And the EV6? The junior salesperson tells us that he has not personally seen one yet, although it has a strong design. We fared better: we actually spotted ONE in Palm Springs.

The Mustang Mach-E has long overtaken the original Mustang in sales

The Mustang Mach-E is now appearing a bit more frequently and has long left the original Mustang far behind in sales. In Germany or other European electric markets, it has become a somewhat familiar sight. Raul Avila, a passionate salesman, has probably sold around 30 Mach-Es in 2022. Outside, it stands at the charging station next to the E-Transit and the F-150 Lightning, as well as a Tesla Model 3. At least. The future is electric, Avila asserts, and if he could just get the cars, he could sell "thousands" of them, he says with a wink. The Mach-E is ordered online and is only available to him if a customer cancels the contract. For every "available" car, he would immediately have ten customers, which is why the Mach-E only briefly "flashes" from the car transporter to the customer's hands.

High interest in electric commercial vehicles

There is also a high level of interest in electric commercial vehicles – but primarily for use in the greater Palm Springs area. Most of his customers aren't (yet) going on long trips with them. That the Mach-E is already such a normal sight in Germany surprises him a bit: "So that's where they deliver all the cars we need here," he muses with a wink. In closing, we ask him what the top sellers at Ford are? Clearly, the F-150, usually as a combustion engine – of which Avila sells not 30, but rather 300 a year. On the lot up front are the F-150 Raptor beside the Explorer and two Broncos…

Chevrolet: The Bolt boosts sales figures

At GM, finding a Bolt is like finding a needle in a haystack. But it sells like hotcakes, says salesperson Raul Solorio. About forty percent of all his sales are now Bolts. And that's just one model – they have three planned for 2023! And yes, even the Bolt is hard to come by: customers order online and pick it up as soon as it arrives at Jessup Autoplaza.

We move from the Chevrolet building to Buick, Cadillac, and GMC, where Sales and Leasing Agent James Eccleston explains: GM will be fully electric by 2030. The interest in the Cadillac Lyriq is huge, and the new luxury sedan Celestiq is already sold out until 2025 post-presentation – which is also due to the extremely limited production numbers. Added to this is the GMC Hummer, though we didn’t see any on the Jessup Auto Plaza lot or on the road. And Buick? "Will also be electric," leaving no doubt about GM's plan, despite the lot currently being full of Encore-GX-SUVs. Plus, there are Chevy and GMC pickups with various configurations, weight classes, and the higher tonnages powered by large Cummins diesels. At no other manufacturer does the disparity between statements and availability seem so vast right now.

Dodge: Preferably both V8 and electric

Chrysler, Jeep, and especially Dodge are currently doing a big balancing act, explains salesperson David Gutirrez. With the Chrysler Pacifica, they currently split fifty-fifty between plug-in and standard combustion engines. Some customers, particularly in rural areas, just don’t want to deal with charging. Interest in plug-ins is noticeably rising at Jeep. The Dodge Rebel is entering the program as a plug-in (aka Alfa Romeo Tonale), and what about the Chrysler 300 sedans and the wild Dodge Challenger and Charger? "I wish they would keep making the Hemi V8 much longer," says Gutirrez, noting a bit of last-minute panic: since the V8 will definitely be discontinued in 2023, many customers are now ordering one, despite significant interest in the purely electric Dodge Charger successor. Gutirrez only worries that the artificial noise Dodge plans for its electric cars won’t quite match the thunder of the V8. And back to BMW: the XM Plug-in is reportedly also an option to prolong the life of the V8….

Out of L.A.: Suddenly Only Teslas Remain

We leave the L.A. region and drive sometimes adventurously long distances without charging or fuel stations. And suddenly only Teslas remain. The reason for this is the densely knit and always functioning network of Superchargers, which are available even on the most remote routes and always work – in contrast to public charging stations, which according to "Road and Track" are rather mediocre. A survey by an institute in San Francisco found that only 73 percent of charging stations work without issues. A spontaneous check on Interstate 15 confirms this. There are exits with names like Zzyzx Road (pronounced zye-zix Road), which either immediately lead into the desert or in the other direction to a research institute.

When we exit at the Valley Wells Rest Area, there is a single fast-charging station for CCS and Chademo, where you could also pay by credit card – but the display already shows numerous brown spots, behind which the functions would be hidden. And during our thirty-minute rest, no one is charging here. This means: In the vast expanses of the states, the charging network is basically present but much sparser than in Europe and doesn't always work. This is why, according to Road and Track, Americans fear charging more than range, despite travelers being familiar with long distances.

Nevertheless, some used Model 3, X, and Y now land at our dealers: Almost all of them have used Teslas on their lots. The question is, which model did the customers at Gutirrez trade in for? A Dodge Charger or Challenger perhaps? Gutirrez smiles knowingly.

What does this mean?

Electromobility in the USA primarily means Tesla – because of the functioning and moderately dense Supercharger network. With this drive, purchasing behavior also changes: Electric cars are usually ordered online and typically picked up directly from the dealer. Picking one out and taking it home straight from the lot? Only for combustion engines, especially since electric vehicles are just as poorly available as in Europe.

Translated automatically from German.
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