McKinsey: Urgent need for action on zero-emission trucks: Lower costs!

A new study by McKinsey & Company, presented at the IAA Transportation in Hanover, shows that to achieve CO₂ targets in Europe, the share of newly sold battery-electric and fuel cell-powered trucks must rise to forty percent by 2030. Currently, this share is below two percent. With appropriate ramp-up, in an optimal scenario, every second new truck could be emission-free by 2035.

To enable this ramp-up, the acquisition costs for zero-emission vehicles need to decrease by up to fifty percent and charging costs by twenty-five percent.

“Under the current framework conditions, battery-electric trucks must be at most 30 percent more expensive in acquisition to be attractive to customers in total operating costs,” specifies Philipp Radtke, Senior Partner at McKinsey.

The study predicts a profound change in the truck industry: By 2035, the business with new vehicles will only account for seven percent of total profits. The majority of the revenues will come from the aftermarket and new data-based mobility offerings, such as charging solutions and digital services. The study emphasizes that this requires substantial investments in charging infrastructure and new business models.

"To achieve such a fundamental change in the industry in such a short time, many factors must come together – from manufacturers and suppliers to logistics companies as customers and the operators of the charging infrastructure," says Anna Herlt, Senior Partner in McKinsey's Munich office and global head of the commercial vehicle consulting practice.

At the same time, the study shows that many logistics companies, particularly smaller ones, are currently refraining from purchasing zero-emission vehicles due to high costs and technological uncertainties. Over thirty percent of the fleet operators surveyed cite battery lifespan, long charging times, and limited ranges as the main reasons against acquiring zero-emission vehicles.

For the necessary investments in the charging infrastructure, McKinsey estimates a requirement of twenty billion US dollars to install up to nine hundred thousand private charging points in Europe by 2035. Currently, only a small part of this amount has been committed, which is also due to bureaucratic hurdles and delays in grid connections.