Kenshiki Forum 2023: Toyota wants mobility for everyone - and by all means
The Japanese automobile manufacturer Toyota believes in a wide range of drives and presented its latest products and strategies for the coming years at its now traditional Kenshiki Forum 2023 in Brussels. The Japanese term “Kenshiki” means “Insight,” and that's exactly what the Japanese provided with a glimpse of a series of new battery-electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles that are set to shape the brand's model range in the coming years. The company's guiding principle is to offer “mobility for all,” though at the forum it rather sounded like mobility with everything that is technologically feasible. The major goal is to achieve complete CO2 neutrality by 2040 in Europe and worldwide by 2050, following the Scope classification. The first and second steps concern European operations and production facilities, which are to be operated CO2-neutral by 2030. By 2035, the company aims for a complete reduction of CO2 in new vehicles, and by 2040, complete CO2 neutrality of the entire value chain and logistics. This is more than symbolic: on four major logistics routes from Belgium to Germany, France, and the Netherlands, the company is relying on VDL trucks with Toyota fuel cell systems.
“For us, mobility primarily means freedom,” says Simon Humphries, Chief Branding Officer and Head of Design at Toyota Motor Corporation, in Brussels. This is also meant technologically: new solutions such as the Gigacasting process or the new vehicle operating system Arene are intended to provide new freedoms in design and an overall better user experience. The battery-electric models presented by Toyota and Lexus include the Lexus LF-ZC, the Toyota FT-Se, the FT-3e, the Toyota Sport Crossover Concept, and the Toyota Urban SUV Concept.
Not either-or, but both-and
“We continue to rely on diverse technologies to reduce CO2 emissions and will steadily increase the number of zero-emission vehicles we offer our customers,” says Yoshihiro Nakata, President and CEO of Toyota Motor Europe, promoting the so-called “Multi-Pathway” approach. In Europe, the share of electrified vehicles at Toyota is already at 71 percent and is expected to rise to 75 percent by 2024, naturally counting the predominantly full hybrids of the brand. But the ratio is set to change: by 2026, the company plans to expand the range of zero-emission vehicles to around 15 models, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The share of battery-electric vehicles is also expected to exceed 20 percent by 2026, which corresponds to more than 250,000 units sold, according to the company officials.
Trending: Compact SUV BEV
Notably contributing to this, alongside the bz4x and the already shown compact BEV SUV, are the production versions of the Urban SUV Concept and Sport Crossover Concept, slated for 2024. With the near-production Urban SUV Concept, Toyota aims to enter a market segment predicted to be one of the largest for electric vehicles in Europe, drawing design inspiration from the Yaris Cross Hybrid. Besides front and all-wheel drive, customers of the 4.30-meter-long, 1.82-meter-wide, and an impressive 1.62-meter-high Urban SUV Concept can also choose between two battery options. The spacious interior, given its length, is also intended to be flexibly configurable. The under 1.50-meter-high, approximately 4.80-meter-long Sport Crossover Concept positions itself with its fastback profile as a design-focused, more efficient alternative to the dominant SUV models and is also intended to be a brand ambassador stylistically. Its introduction in Europe is planned for 2025. It intends to be as practical and spacious as an SUV, making battery integration a particularly challenging task, as one official outlined.
Far Ahead: The FT-3e Communicates with Its Surroundings
Offering a broad "insight" and outlook on production, technology, and design of the next generation of electric vehicles, the Toyota FT-3e Concept was introduced—a technological study that showcases future technologies, promising minimized weight, optimized aerodynamics, and "controlled" costs. The stately 4.86 meters long, 1.95 meters wide, and 1.60 meters high futuristic SUV aims to demonstrate how cars of the future will connect with society and enable the transfer of energy and data. Cars are expected to offer more than just "mobility." The model, in the truest sense and not just in design, is intended to be "extroverted": Using digital displays on the body surfaces, the driver can read the battery charge level, interior temperature, and air quality as they approach the vehicle.
Next-Generation Batteries After 2026
Speaking of the future: The company is working on a range of new batteries and aims to quickly catch up with the competition. The first is a performance battery with conventional structure that promises nearly double the range of the current bZ4X battery—while simultaneously reducing costs by 20 percent.
To democratize e-mobility, as stated on-site, a LFP battery that combines good quality with affordable prices is being developed. It features a new shape and bipolar structure. Compared to the bZ4X, Toyota is aiming for a 20 percent increase in range and a 40 percent cost reduction. The third type of battery focuses on high-performance with bipolar technologies and a high-nickel cathode. Toyota expects even lower costs and greater range compared to the performance battery. The buzzword "1000 kilometers plus" comes up repeatedly.
As for the prospects of Toyota's fabled solid-state batteries, Andrea Carlucci mentions a major challenge regarding durability. However: "We have achieved a technological breakthrough. We are currently developing a process for mass production and aiming for market launch by 2027-2028, with a production capacity of several tens of thousands of vehicles," he announced. From the start, a charging time from 10 to 80 percent of only ten minutes is planned. Initially, however, this will be a top-tier technology for the top models and a gradual transition, not a hard shift.
The Hydrogen Society as a Goal
For the local audience, the most contentious technology is hydrogen, which the Japanese persistently pursue, driven by the domestic market and the vision of a "hydrogen society," despite a somewhat stubborn approach. Despite the continued lack of success with the mid-size sedan Mirai, they recently introduced the luxury sedan Crown. They promote the advantages in refueling time and weight, announcing the third generation of their fuel-cell system for 2026. Toyota emphasizes that hydrogen and its growing infrastructure significantly contribute to achieving the planned goals.
The accrued know-how and the fuel-cell system can certainly be better utilized in trucks. The system is set to be installed in heavy trucks like the Dutch VDL or the French Hyliko, buses from the Spanish provider Caetano, ships from the Norwegian provider Corvus, and pickups. The latter isn't such a bad idea, as demonstrated by the prototype of the Toyota Hilux with fuel cell drive. However, the Hilux Fuel-Cell is not intended as an all-wheel drive but a rear-wheel drive with a 134-kW electric synchronous motor (300 Nm), three hydrogen tanks located under the floor, a Li-Ion battery mounted on the front wall of the loading area, and it aims to reach 600 kilometers with the Mirai system. Not to be forgotten: Like a diesel, it has a towing capacity of 3.5 tons and a payload of one ton. However, detailed technical specifications are still under wraps. There is also no word on where the off-roader might find a hydrogen refueling station in the outback.
Hydrogen Factory in Europe Bundles the Topic
With the "Hydrogen Factory," Toyota Motor Europe is even strengthening its pan-European activities around hydrogen and fuel cell technology, referencing the EU's commitment to invest 45 billion euros in building an H2 infrastructure by 2027 as part of their "H2 Roadmap," such as with blue corridors with refueling stations every 200 kilometers along highways. The new division is meant to holistically advance the commercialization of hydrogen technology and systems – from development through manufacturing to sales and customer service. In addition to expanding the production of fuel cell systems, the Hydrogen Factory is also responsible for partnerships. The costs for the systems should drop by 30 percent, while efficiency, effectiveness, and range should increase by 20 percent, and scalable stacks are also envisioned by the Japanese.
Moreover, Toyota continues to pursue the hydrogen combustion technology among OEMs quite exclusively, as evidenced by a prototype of the HiAce H2 Engine in Japan. The Japanese genuinely believe in a "hydrogen society" in Europe, not just in Japan. The question remains open as to where and with which surplus all the green hydrogen will be produced. Half probably in Europe and half imported. By 2030, 42 percent of the hydrogen used in the EU should come from renewable sources. "Europe is showing long-term confidence in hydrogen – just as we are," says Thiebault Paquet, who, as Vice President at TME, leads the fuel cell business.
Toyota Professional: Growth Market Commercial Vehicles
Also in the transporter segment, the Japanese manufacturer wants a larger slice of the ever-growing market pie according to its own forecast. With the new Proace Max, a Fiat-Ducato derivative, they are expanding their offerings in the light commercial vehicle sector. The large transporter is offered in three lengths and heights each. Just like the smaller models, which have also been freshly electrically and digitally revamped and significantly differentiated visually from the Stellantis siblings with their futuristic-smooth front, the Proace City and Proace Max are available as battery-electric variants with a range of up to 420 kilometers (WLTP). This was also a requirement from many customers to be less dependent on charging infrastructure in everyday work. A 15 percent BEV share is expected for the large electric transporter, similar to the smaller vans. By 2025, driven by demand from fleets, it is anticipated that one-third of e-vans will be in the small, midsize, and large segments, each of which constitutes one-third of the market.
Raising Quality in Vans
For this reason alone, Emmanuel Beaune, Head of LCV and Corporate Sales, points to the necessity of a "Large Van." The brand's flagship carrier will also become a mild hybrid aside from the fuel cell future: The pickup truck Toyota, which plays a significant role in the business customer sector, will be introduced next year with a 48-volt hybrid system. The new drive provides more power and torque while simultaneously reducing fuel consumption by ten percent. For the current fiscal year, Toyota Professional expects sales of 140,000 vehicles, an increase of over 20 percent compared to 2022. And for 2025, 180,000 is anticipated, all contractually secured with the partner and supplier Stellantis, in whose factories the Toyota vans are also produced. Not without the Japanese, reportedly having considerable influence on production quality in the background, as responsible parties emphasize. The main reason for the continuous growth in the brand's light commercial vehicles is seen in the versatile offerings and the intensive customer service of the nationwide dealer network, they say. Additionally, Beaune points to the extensive warranty, which is standard at three years and can be extended up to ten years with "Toyota Relax."
What does that mean?
No question, the Japanese manufacturer has made great contributions to small-scale electrification – the full hybrid technology developed from its initially ridiculed beginnings into an absolute success story, helping to reduce the emissions from combustion engines as much as possible within the given framework. This is especially true because the initially very unusual driving behavior of the technology was scaled down to the subcompact Yaris. But time has passed over the technology – and the manufacturer has become somewhat outdated. Indeed, better than burning little fossil fuel is not burning any at all. Battery-electric mobility is significantly superior to hybrids in terms of efficiency. And it could use a "Toyota boost" for massive scaling. However, it comes rather late. But at least: It is coming.
There is, however, a risk of getting lost in Japanese stubbornness, a cultural predisposition on the chronically power-grid-weak island, and the resulting firm belief in a "hydrogen society," with the other alternatives. These range from the full hybrid, which continues to be the main focus for now, to the fuel cell technology, which is at least questionable in passenger cars because it is inefficient and costly, or even the quite absurd hydrogen combustion engine or E-Fuels. But this is a business decision apparently supported by the well-filled war chest of the Japanese, unlike the European competitor Volkswagen, which could no longer afford such escapades, nor does it want to, in its battery-electric determination.
At the Kenshiki Forum, it became clear that Toyota continues to follow a special path and wants to take a broad approach, euphemistically referring to it as the "Multipathway" approach, because the various global markets require different paths and solutions. But overall, one wishes for a clearer focus on the most efficient drive, and that is battery-electric. The concepts shown, which are coming in the next few years, do not reinvent the "electric wheel," whether it's a compact SUV or an E-Cross limousine, but are rather "me too" as the decent but not groundbreaking bz4x already is today. One would have wished for the willingness to be more clearly than just discreetly indicated that Tokyo wants to prove: BEV can also be affordable! Or specifically: An electric Yaris or even an Aygo would have been a hit. After all, it worked with the hybrid.
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