Juice Technology: Forecast on Electric Vehicle Trends

The management board of Juice Technology AG, the Swiss manufacturer of charging stations and software, remains active. Futurist Lars Thomsen, who is also on the board, once again ventures exciting insights into the most important trends that could influence the development of electromobility in the coming years, especially in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.

In December 2019, the EU declared that it aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic by 90 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. To achieve this goal, which is part of the European Green Deal, an efficient charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is to be established. By 2030, sufficient charging capacities for passenger cars and trucks should be erected every 60 kilometers in each direction along the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). Although the target of one million charging points by 2025 seems rather ambitious, it is no less necessary given the rapid development of electromobility.

Status Quo – where does Europe stand in terms of electromobility in 2021?

The share of electric vehicles in Europe was around 20 percent of new car sales in 2021. In the five largest European markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom), the market share of electric vehicles (including BEVs, PHEVs, and hybrids) increased from 8 percent in 2019 to 38 percent in 2021. In September 2021, the Tesla Model 3 became the best-selling car in Europe (across all types of powertrains) for the first time. While the market for diesel and gasoline engines is declining in registrations, the proportion of "plug-in vehicles" has been rising by double digits for a long time.

According to Thomsen's forecast, the share of electrified vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) in Europe will already exceed the new registrations of diesel and gasoline vehicles in the first half of 2023. According to Thomsen, by 2025, electric vehicles will reach the tipping point in practically all vehicle segments and classes, where they become significantly more attractive both economically and in direct performance comparison with internal combustion engines, which are increasingly becoming obsolete.

Electromobility for the masses and smaller (vehicle) classes

According to Thomsen, ranges will continue to increase, while charging times will become even shorter, and charging opportunities in public and private spaces will become increasingly commonplace. Due to growing competition, falling prices, and a broader range of offerings, these vehicles are also expected to become increasingly dominant in the high-volume mid- and small-price segments according to the forecast.

China increasingly pushes into Europe

After a long lead time, China is increasingly able to penetrate and score points in the European and US markets with new, finally attractive, and reasonably high-quality electric cars and PHEVs. Lars Thomsen expects at least six Chinese brands with multiple models on both markets by 2025. At the same time, this will give the already rapidly expanding US market for electric cars (+190% compared to the previous year) additional momentum. Due to the sheer number of customers and cars, China is expected to remain the largest BEV market in the world until 2026.

USA: Electric pickups drive a surge in new EV registrations

According to Thomsen's forecast, the US market expects a boost for EVs and for the charging infrastructure beyond the current hot spots in metropolitan regions. Especially the entry of several players into the most important US car market with "pickup trucks" will enable a jump to an EV share of more than 15 percent of new registrations in the USA from mid-2022. Depending on the availability of batteries and vehicles, the EV share of new car sales in the USA will also rise to at least 40 percent by 2025. During the same period, the volume of EV charging technology in the US market could increase at least twentyfold compared to today.

Charging Infrastructure in Europe: In the End, There Will Be Three to Five Major Networks

Several trends are emerging in the charging infrastructure: For AC charging, the three-phase 11-kW charger is becoming the most common solution in Europe. On the vehicle side, this size of onboard charger is easy to install and sufficient to fully charge even 80 kWh or larger batteries overnight.

In the DC area, the CCS connection with up to 350 kW charging power along long-distance routes is the standard. According to Juice's forecast, installations with 50 to 100 kW will be used in public parking lots, cities, or points of interest.

By 2024, practically every motorway service area in Europe will have fast chargers, which means enormous investments for the operators. These will be passed on to users in the form of relatively high prices per kWh unless users sign a premium contract with the respective operator with a monthly base fee. According to current forecasts, three to five networks will emerge across Europe, which will compete for long-term customer loyalty in a manner similar to today's mobile network operators.

Europe is called upon to actively and decisively shape the rapid transition to sustainable, electric mobility. With this new dynamic, the cards of the global automotive industry will be reshuffled. Christoph Erni, CEO and founder of Juice Technology AG, is convinced:

“More than ever, there is an opportunity for technology locations like Germany, Austria, or Switzerland to accelerate the transport transition through innovation and integrate mobility into a new green economy.”

What Does This Mean?

Juice itself provides the answer in this case: E-cars and intelligent, powerful, and grid-serving charging infrastructure go hand in hand like two sides of a coin. We need the same good conditions throughout Europe to continue playing a leading role in global e-mobility and to achieve our self-imposed and necessary climate targets. Especially in light of current developments, it should become clear to everyone that locally and regionally generated renewable energy is superior to any finite and contested finite resource.