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InfluenceMap analysis on electric plans: Only Tesla and Mercedes on 1.5°C course
The world's largest car manufacturers are undermining global climate goals by lagging behind on targets for electric vehicles while simultaneously lobbying to extend the lifespan of the combustion engine, criticizes a new study from the London climate think tank InfluenceMap. All twelve companies whose policies and plans were analyzed had publicly declared their support for the Paris Agreement. However, only one of them, Tesla, is advocating for policies that align with the agreement's goals, and only two, Tesla and Mercedes-Benz, are expected to transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV) quickly enough to meet the 1.5°C pathway outlined by the International Energy Agency, the think tank concludes. Notably, the California pioneer Tesla has been a purely electric manufacturer from the beginning.
Almost all are moving too slowly
The analysis of vehicle production forecasts shows a clear link between the car manufacturers' climate policy engagement and their production strategies. Toyota, for example, had the most negative climate policy engagement of all twelve analyzed car manufacturers. The company also showed the lowest anticipated BEV production, based on independent data from IHS Markit.
"The latest IPCC report makes it clear that a rapid dissemination of battery-powered electric vehicles is crucial for achieving global climate goals. Nevertheless, this study shows that major car manufacturers still remain among the biggest opponents of climate policy worldwide," complained Ben Youriev, Program Director at InfluenceMap.
Almost all car manufacturers are not keeping pace with the transition to zero-emission vehicles. The study shows that those lagging furthest behind also express the most negative views on climate policy, Youriev further noted. The results are based on a detailed assessment of the climate policy engagement of twelve companies worldwide, combined with an investigation of the future production data of all car manufacturers from IHS Markit up to the year 2029 (the scope of current forecasts). This is compared to the IEA's 1.5°C scenario for the decarbonization of the transport sector. The data is included in InfluenceMap's new interactive Automotive Climate Tool.
Only one-third BEVs worldwide by 2029
The IEA's 1.5°C scenario outlines a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. For the transport sector, this requires, according to the IEA, the gradual phasing out of internal combustion engines (ICE) in passenger vehicles and a rapid switch to zero-emission vehicles. According to the IEA's 1.5°C scenario, 57.5% of globally sold vehicles need to be zero-emission by 2030. To align this number with the IHS Markit forecasts for 2029, the trend of the IEA's 1.5°C scenario would need to reach about 52% by that year. However, it is forecasted that the combined global production of battery electric vehicles by all car manufacturers will only reach 32% (and just 0.1% for FCEVs) by 2029. To meet the 2030 IEA target, the automotive sector must increase the production of zero-emission vehicles by 80% in the last 12 months.
The Japanese are particularly lagging behind
Only two car manufacturers - Tesla (100%) and the Mercedes-Benz Group (56%) - are expected to exceed the required trendline for 2029 to achieve the net-zero target. According to IHS Markit data, the three car manufacturers with the smallest plans for zero-emission vehicle production (battery-electric or hydrogen) by 2029 all have their headquarters in Japan: Toyota (14%), Honda (18%), and Nissan (22%).
Strong regional differences within a brand
However, there are strong regional differences within each individual automaker, the NGO states. For example, 49% of Toyota's fleet produced in the EU will be battery electric vehicles by 2029, while in the United States it will only be 4%. Toyota is not expected to produce any hydrogen-powered FCEVs in either region in 2029.
The two automakers headquartered in the USA, Ford (36%) and General Motors (28%), are predicted to fall short of the IEA's 1.5°C scenario requirements with their global production of battery-powered electric vehicles. However, Ford's production in the EU is expected to reach 65% by 2029.
SUV trend jeopardizes decarbonization
The report also notes that the growing SUV production is threatening the decarbonization of the automotive sector. The increasing size of vehicles is a major factor in global traffic emissions, and the 12 analyzed automakers will produce a higher share of SUVs worldwide in 2029 than in 2020. This risks undoing much of the emission reductions achieved through increased production of battery-powered electric vehicles.
Most automakers "negatively engaged" in climate policy
When it comes to climate policy lobbying, eight of the twelve automakers surveyed score "D+" or worse in the InfluenceMap system for measuring engagement compared to the Paris Agreement benchmarks. While these automakers communicated high-level support for climate protection, they also strategically opposed certain measures to regulate and/or phase out ICE vehicles, the think tank criticizes. A comparison with data on electric vehicle production shows a clear correlation between negative political engagement and low forecasts for BEV production.
Toyota improves but remains defensive
According to InfluenceMap, Toyota is the worst-performing automaker globally, although the company has recently improved the transparency of its political engagement. The "D" rating reflects the company's negative stance on political measures to decarbonize the transport sector. The company strategically opposes ambitious climate policy for road transport on a global level while pushing for a longer-term role for hybrid vehicles with combustion engines compared to battery-powered electric vehicles, the NGO criticizes. This position puts Toyota at odds with the recent IPCC report, which found that electric vehicles powered by low-emission electricity offer the greatest decarbonization potential for land-based transport on a life cycle basis.
Not surprisingly: Only Tesla fully aligned with Paris
Tesla (B) is, according to the think tank, the only automaker that largely supports the Paris climate policy and is thus the clear market leader in this sector. The remaining three companies - Volkswagen (C), Ford (C-), and General Motors (C-) - showed mixed climate policy engagement. The industry associations representing automakers in all key regions (USA, EU, Germany, Japan, and the UK) exhibited very negative climate policy engagement, according to the NGO, and are strategically used by automakers to lead negative global lobbying against climate legislation.
Large regional differences reflect political framework conditions
There is a strong correlation between government policy on phasing out ICE cars and local production of battery-powered electric vehicles. In the European Union, which pursues one of the most ambitious strategies for decarbonizing the transport sector, 59% of local production is expected to be battery-electric vehicles by 2029, according to IHS Markit. Nevertheless, some large European automakers like BMW still seem to be leading proponents of a proposed EU CO2 target for 2035 that envisions zero emissions.
USA presents a completely different scenario to Europe
The results in the United States are almost the complete opposite of the European Union scenario, according to the NGO. Only two automakers - Tesla (100%) and Volkswagen (57%) - are expected to produce enough battery-powered electric vehicles in the USA to meet the IEA target. While there is limited conversion from combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles, 65% of light vehicles produced in the USA will still be powered by combustion engines by 2029.
Japan: Domestically dominated by combustion engines
Japan's domestically produced fleet will continue to be dominated by combustion engine vehicles (76%) by 2029, with only 14% of all vehicles produced in 2029 being battery-electric, according to the forecast. This reflects the dominance of hybrid vehicles with combustion engines in the business strategies of Japanese automakers, increasing the risk that Honda, Nissan, and Toyota will fall further behind the global competition in battery-electric vehicles, the think tank warns.
The study also shows that major automakers plan to shift combustion engine production to Africa, India, and South America. In stark contrast to Europe, it is projected that by 2029 only 3% of vehicles produced in South America, 8% in Africa, and 9% in India will be battery-electric vehicles. Even automakers with significant European BEV ambitions, such as Volkswagen, will produce very few BEVs in these key emerging markets, the NGO warns.
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