ifeu Study: E-Trucks Lead in 2030 - in Emissions and Costs

Due to low operating costs, battery and overhead line trucks will be economically viable for hauliers in the future despite higher acquisition costs, even without government support. This is the conclusion of a comparative analysis that ifeu has now presented as part of the "My eRoads" research project. By 2030, electric trucks could therefore dominate new registrations. The switch to battery and overhead line vehicles could significantly contribute to achieving the German government's 2030 climate targets for the transport sector. If based purely on costs, hauliers will only be purchasing electric trucks for domestic transports by 2030 (see infographic in the appendix).

Battery-electric trucks will be significantly cheaper and more climate-friendly than new diesel trucks for almost all applications in ten years, even with moderate CO₂ prices. (Study Director Julius Jöhrens)

50% Reduction in CO₂ Emissions

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from different drives for the year 2030 also shows that battery-electric trucks can save about half of the CO₂ emissions compared to diesel trucks, including electricity generation and vehicle manufacturing. About a third of the remaining CO₂ emissions will then come from vehicle manufacturing. The use of overhead lines can significantly reduce the required battery sizes of trucks and thus further improve the climate balance.

Fuel Cell Trucks Hardly Competitive

The overhead line technology is particularly interesting for use on long distances. However, the use of hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles is also being discussed in this context. In direct comparison with battery and overhead line trucks, the fuel cell counterparts are only economically competitive with extremely low hydrogen prices. These are only predicted in optimistic scenarios for H₂ imports from wind and sun-rich regions outside Europe. The CO₂ emissions are only lower than those of overhead line trucks if the hydrogen for the vehicles is almost exclusively produced regeneratively – an expectation that is likely difficult to meet in practice given the high H₂ demand from other sectors.

The results of the study clearly show: Hydrogen produced with German electricity mix will neither match diesel technology in cost nor in CO₂ balance by 2030. Therefore, the use of fuel cell trucks represents a medium-term bet on the future availability of cheap and fully renewable imported hydrogen.

Government Action Required for Infrastructure Development

What does this mean for the future? Hauliers will likely almost always opt for a battery-electric vehicle from a cost perspective in 2030. Fuel cell trucks, due to their significant cost disadvantage, will only come into play where the use of battery trucks fails due to practical considerations – how often this will occur is partly in the hands of the state through infrastructure development.

Technology and costs are clearly developing towards electric trucks. The state's task now is to advance the expansion of stationary charging infrastructure on the main routes and to examine where this can be sensibly complemented by an overhead line network. This way, heavy-duty traffic can contribute significantly to climate goals in the transport sector. (Jöhrens)

Nevertheless:

Even electric vehicles can only halve the CO₂ emissions of a truck in 2030 lifecycle assessments. Additionally, it will take time to convert the truck fleet. To actually achieve the set climate goals, we must therefore continue to avoid unnecessary truck transports and significantly shift more transports to rail in the long term. (Jöhrens)

The study "Comparative Analysis of the Potential of Drive Technologies for Trucks in the Time Horizon 2030" is a partial report within the project "Electrification Potential of Freight and Bus Transport – My eRoads". It was created by ifeu together with PTV Transport Consult. The analysis was funded by the Federal Ministry for the Environment.

Download the study in our appendix.