ICCT Study: Scrappage Bonus for Combustion Engines Would Be Cheaper Than E-Fuels

A scrappage premium for combustion engine cars could, according to a new study, make a significant contribution to achieving climate targets - and be significantly cheaper than e-fuels. This is the finding of a study by the environmental research network ICCT. According to this, the researchers also assume that with a scrappage program, not only more money, but also more CO2 can be saved compared to e-fuels – namely up to a third of the savings needed in the transport sector by 2030. Specifically, the scrappage program proposed in the study envisions the decommissioning of eight million cars. This could save up to 11 million tons of CO2 equivalents. With e-fuels, however, the so-called emissions reduction potential is only up to 190,000 tons of CO2 equivalents.

E-fuels are simply expensive

At the same time, the scientists estimate the production costs for e-fuels produced in Germany - i.e., synthetic fuels from renewable energy - in 2030 at about 910 euros per ton of CO2 equivalents avoided. In contrast, with a scrappage program, it is only 313 euros per ton for diesel vehicles and 255 euros for gasoline vehicles. Even with e-fuels manufactured abroad and imported to Germany, the costs would be significantly higher. The estimated costs for e-fuels imported from, for example, Brazil, are about 619 euros per ton of CO2 equivalents in 2030, according to the study.

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization. It helped uncover the VW emissions scandal in the USA in 2015. The central question of the current study is what contribution a scrappage program can make to closing the existing gap in reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector. To this end, the authors have looked at the projected vehicle fleet for the year 2030 - also because, according to ICCT Europe's executive director Peter Mock, there are expected to be enough available e-cars for consumers by then.