Germany must wake up - urgently

I am writing these lines under the impression of the Bucha massacre. It’s not that such war atrocities surprise me, as I have been involved with the topic of war for decades, especially the Second World War. I am shaken because Putin’s henchmen apparently don’t even bother to hide their inhumane actions in any way. This does not bode well for the future - the latest reports of further Russian war crimes confirm this fear. We will also increasingly witness such crimes committed by Ukrainian forces against Russian soldiers - as a mere reaction to the massacres. Not to be condoned, but almost a logical development. Especially since on the Ukrainian side a number of paramilitary units, ranging up to right-wing extremist Azov Regiment, are active. War is never black and white, even if many people would like to see it that way.

Germany's Economy is Going Down

However, I am also shaken by the first reactions from German politics. While further sanctions against Russia are being targeted, an immediate halt to energy supplies from there is not planned, according to Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck. What would be so bad about that? Most economists believe that such a step would result in a decrease of the gross national product by a margin of 3 to 6% – a size somewhat below the effects of the first pandemic year in 2020. Instead, a massive fear campaign is currently being conducted under the slogan: The German economy will collapse! This was also decried before the introduction of the minimum wage; today it is considered a stimulating element of the domestic economy.

Germany's Economy is Not Collapsing

A study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) comes to a very different conclusion than the many supposedly concerned but probably more fearful commentators from the business sector worrying about their threatened deals and profits: "If the energy-saving potential is maximized and at the same time supplies from other natural gas supplier countries are expanded as far as technically possible, the German gas supply is secured even without Russian imports in the current year and in the coming winter 2022/23," states the conclusion of the study.Simply by increasing gas imports from Norway, about one-fifth of the previous Russian imports of more than 50 billion cubic meters per year, which have so far accounted for about 55% of total gas imports, could be replaced. In combination with a declining gas consumption, the German energy supply could be secured. The demand could be reduced between 18 and 26% – for example, by completely replacing natural gas in electricity generation.

Comfort is Relative

Above all, a simple but effective measure could be used in the emergency: saving energy. This could be implemented quickly, especially for private households, e.g., by reducing their consumption by around a quarter – certainly feasible. Without major loss of comfort, I already switched weeks ago and turned off the heating on warm March days or heated only the living room on colder April days. It’s not that bad, it even brings people closer together as the family gathers in one room. In the study, two sweaters are worn over each other, and at night you sleep with two pairs of socks on your feet. It works!

Long Live Convenience!

Unfortunately, neither the population nor the politicians are even making an effort to save or sensibly restructure in the short term to become independent of Russian energy imports and thus implement a real embargo. Because it is so much more convenient to just continue and burden the consequences on the Ukrainian population. As a result, we are fueling Russia's war against Ukraine with our money. Currently, the EU spends 400 million euros per day on Russian gas and even about 450 million euros on oil from Putin's realm! 80 to 85% of this is exchanged into rubles to finance the apparatus's civil service and its military. This works so well because Sberbank and Gazprombank, two of the three largest Russian banks, are exempt from the SWIFT exclusion and thus about 75% of Russia’s financial transactions remain unaffected – another toothless tiger of the world community with significant involvement from Germany. This year, Russia is likely to achieve a new record revenue of well over 300 billion euros from its energy imports - despite sanctions!

Germany Cannot Deliver

Germany, meanwhile, displays an odd passivity when it comes to arms exports to Ukraine. The world’s fifth-largest arms exporter, which currently armors a questionable regime like Egypt’s, apparently can’t deliver – neither from Bundeswehr stockpiles nor from the industry. The country’s defense capability would be at risk. However, the question arises, who is currently threatening Germany? Slovakia, closer to the Ukrainian war theater, has just donated its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. Great Britain is delivering 120 infantry fighting vehicles, and Australia 20 Bushmaster troop carriers. We can be thankful that the much-maligned USA has remained focused and has massively armed Ukraine since the Biden administration took office. Without their help, the war in Ukraine would probably have been decided long ago, and Putin’s armies would be at the borders of NATO in the Baltics and Poland – or perhaps even beyond.

Sophistic Debates

Meanwhile, there are still discussions about heavy and light, defensive and offensive weapons. As if such sophistic debates and moral-ethical distinctions in the ivory tower really mattered. As if Putin would use the atomic bomb if we supplied Marder infantry fighting vehicles. Far more important would be a distinction between short-, medium-, and long-term deliverable weapon systems. The priority should be what immediately helps Ukrainians the most, such as rocket-propelled grenades, light anti-aircraft weapons, ammunition, and weapon systems they already use – to be able to stop the next offensives by the Russians in the east and south of the country.

Since the war may not only last weeks and months but potentially years, and a post-war order based on deterrence will likely be necessary, a plan must also be devised for how we can militarily support Ukraine in the long term. This includes not only the delivery of weapon technology but also the training of the local military on the usually complex systems. This concerns, among other things, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, air defense systems, helicopters, and airplanes. For the conflict over Ukraine will probably only end when Russia has completely withdrawn from the country, including from the Donbass and Crimea. The sooner it is able to conduct an offensive war, the sooner the conflict in Ukraine will end, that should be clear to us.

Errors and Misappointments Everywhere You Look

However, the question is whether such a change in foreign policy is possible with the current political personnel. I have little hope in a procrastinator like Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and none at all in Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, a classic misappointment in my eyes. Only Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock seems to have recognized the signs of the times.

Germany is certainly partly responsible for what is happening in and with Ukraine right now. Therefore, it is particularly important for us to support the country and make up for our mistakes. The biggest one: In 2008, Germany was instrumental in preventing Ukraine's admission to NATO – the cardinal error and reason for today's war. Moreover, our country repeatedly blocked sanctions after Russian attacks on Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014), thus motivating Putin for further military adventures. At the same time, we financed and armed him with our purchases of raw materials.

Shopping with the Despot

Instead of admitting our mistakes and showing at least a little solidarity by “suffering along” with Ukraine, the country, with Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck at the forefront, celebrates itself for buying oil and gas from Arab despots and regimes – as recently in Qatar. The same country that is one of the largest financiers of extremist violence from Yemen to the Middle East. This money is likely to be used for criminal purposes tomorrow. And once again, the helpless West will stand by in astonishment and dismay. Brave new world!

The World May Heal Through German Ways!

Germany's Ukraine policy is actually just the tip of the iceberg of its political and societal inadequacies. Below lie the true dilemmas and conflicts of a country that has lost its direction. Just a few years ago, this country saw itself at the peak of its achievements, believed it had fared better than most countries through the financial and economic crisis starting in 2008. An imperial spirit reigned again, in line with "The world may heal through German ways." The then Minister of Economic Affairs Peter Altmaier fantasized about 20 golden years lying ahead for Germany. His words from 2017 sound ironic today: “Thank God it is enough today to talk to each other in conflicts, instead of, as in worse times, shooting at each other. (...) We live in the most beautiful and best Germany we have had in the last 100 years.”

Apathy and Paralysis

Meanwhile, what the country is suffering from today, and will suffer from in the coming decades, had long been brewing. Myself and, unfortunately, too few colleagues have been warning for a long time that the 16 years of Merkel will come back to haunt us. Years in which the country remained in a strange apathy and paralysis and lived off the achievements following reunification but fundamentally missed making groundbreaking decisions for the future in a disruptively developing economy and world. We are experiencing the first effects today. Years ago, I wrote that Germany would once again be the "poor man" in Europe by 2030 at the latest, as it was around the turn of the millennium. Perhaps, considering the energy issue, it could now happen even faster. Does this country always need crises and breakdowns to change something within itself? – one might ask.

Conservative and Hard-hearted

This country has been failing for more than a hundred years repeatedly due to its conservatism. Recently, a hard-heartedness that was believed to be long forgotten is also increasing. It starts at the smallest level when you see how cold-heartedly parents in kindergarten or school act against other parents and their children under the guise of a misguided "tiger parenting" when the little ones have minor scuffles – something that was hardly worth mentioning in the past. It extends to a former Federal Minister for Family Affairs whose career seemed more important than her sick husband and neglected children, not to mention the distressed people in the Ahr Valley. And it extends to a society that – as long as the healthcare system is not overloaded – accepts the daily death of hundreds of fellow citizens in the coronavirus pandemic, just as it does the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians since the start of the war. As long as the stove is warm and 239 million chocolate Easter bunnies are ready for the holiday – as the confectionery industry recently proudly announced.

The Modern Pharisees

Of course, people show their colors and take to the streets for Ukraine. This allows them to feel good and ease their conscience. And at the same time, it shows a complete naivety. As if this would impress Putin and make him stop. If people really wanted to make a difference with such demonstrations, they should demand from German politics “tanks, airplanes, and weapons” for Ukraine on their posters. But that would hardly fit with the noble, self-evident, ethically-morally superior individuals. Essentially, such events are just about making a statement – for themselves and entirely in the spirit of the Pharisees.

“Measure and Middle” and Please “Drive on Sight”!

For years, the country has only produced declarations of intent and paper on which goals are formulated without seriously tackling them. It feels good and has no consequences. This starts with the "Gas Emergency Plan for the Federal Republic of Germany," which has been in effect since September 2019 and is not worth the paper it’s written on, up to the climate protection agreements of recent years. Just like in corona politics, one hears again in connection with the Ukraine war those unspeakable words from politicians’ mouths: we should "maintain measure and middle" and "drive on sight." Translated, this means: We change nothing and keep everything as it is, no matter how nonsensical and outdated it may be. And: We don't have a real plan. With all the criticism of China, there is one thing the communist-capitalist-nationalist country is far superior to the West in: planning not just four weeks ahead, as in Germany, but over 10, 30, and even 50 years. This will probably ensure China’s dominance and world leadership in the long run.

On to the Next Big Bang

With the experience of the GDR-under Angela Merkel, Germany has, however, elevated muddling through to a principle. Until the next big bang comes. Not for nothing did former Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski already warn in 2011: "German power I fear less than German inactiveness." Particularly ominous to me in this regard is the even bigger problem than the Ukraine war, namely climate change. Hardly anyone in the SUV nation of Germany is seriously willing to make sacrifices in their lifestyle. Yet the problem is becoming increasingly urgent.

As the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris reported, a record 36.3 billion tons of energy-related carbon dioxide equivalents were emitted worldwide in 2021 – more than ever before. At the same time, the far more effective greenhouse gas methane has also reached record levels according to the US authority NOAA, since measurements began almost 40 years ago. In the eyes of the majority of Germans, however, the world is on a good path, and Germany is a pioneer. The reality, however, is quite different. Germany has long since become a sinner in terms of climate protection – among other things, as the country where seven of the ten most harmful coal plants in Europe are located.

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