Gartner Forecast: Electric Cars to Increase by One Third by 2025
By the end of 2025, 85 million electric vehicles (EVs) - cars, buses, vans, and trucks - will be on the road, according to the latest forecast from data and forecasting specialist Gartner for IT Executives.
"Despite some hurdles that have affected the EV market in recent months, we expect the number of EVs used worldwide to stand at 64 million in 2024 and increase by 33% by 2025. Many companies have overestimated how quickly the transition to electric vehicles would occur. This led to companies like Ford, General Motors, Jaguar Land Rover, and most recently Toyota delaying the market launch of new EV models," said Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner.
The growth in 2025 will be primarily driven by higher sales of electric vehicles in China (58%) and Europe (24%). These two markets together are expected to account for 82% of all electric vehicles used worldwide. The global stock of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is estimated to reach almost 62 million units by the end of 2025, representing an increase of 35% compared to 2024. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow somewhat slower, reaching an installed base of 23 million units in 2025, an increase of 28% compared to 2024.
China outshines everything electrically
Regionally, EV ownership in China is forecasted to overshadow the installed base in the rest of the world by 2025 and likely into the next decade. The demand for electric vehicles is steadily growing in Europe and North America, where 36% of the world's electric vehicles are expected to be located in 2024. Gartner estimates that by 2025, there will be 49 million electric vehicles operating in China, compared with 20.6 million electric vehicles in Europe and 10.4 million electric vehicles in North America.
By 2030, car manufacturers will enable the recycling of 95% of batteries from electric vehicles to mitigate the risk of raw material shortages. As the sales of electric vehicles are expected to increase year by year, a shortage of raw materials will not be easy to overcome.
"A solid recycling strategy to utilize the materials in old batteries and scrap from the production process, along with the EU's efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the demand for additional minerals," says Davenport.
Since the concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, old batteries could be considered highly enriched ore, Davenport defines. If old batteries are recovered on a large scale, they could enhance the overall economics of electric vehicles by lowering battery prices. Another advantage would be that the batteries wouldn't be disposed of unethically or stored in landfills, according to the specialist.
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