Fraunhofer ISI Study: Hydrogen is also losing ground in trucks

Fuel cell vehicles have lost their former advantages in range and refueling time and are unlikely to compete with battery counterparts, says the independent German research institute Fraunhofer ISI. The urgency of the climate crisis means that the world should focus on accelerating the expansion of battery-powered vehicles and fast-charging infrastructure instead of promoting fuel cell cars and trucks as well as H₂ refueling stations, according to a study in the journal Nature Electronics, cited in the trade journal "Recharge".

"Hydrogen will play an important role in industry, shipping, and synthetic aviation fuels. But for road transport, in my opinion, we cannot wait for hydrogen technology to catch up and should now focus on battery electric vehicles for both passenger and freight transport," explains Dr. Patrick Plötz, Coordinator of the Energy Economics Business Unit at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI.

Cars: Time window for fuel cell almost closed

For Plötz, "the time window to achieve a relevant market share for hydrogen cars is almost closed." He points out that at the beginning of last year, around 25,000 fuel cell cars were on the roads, two FCEV models were available for purchase (Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo), and around 540 hydrogen refueling stations were in operation worldwide.

"In contrast, at the beginning of 2022, around 15 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to be on the world's roads. Almost all manufacturers offer such vehicles; there are more than 350 models globally," summarizes Plötz.

And while most drivers of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently charge at home, there were about 1.3 million public charging points in 2020 – a quarter of which were fast chargers (at least 22 kW) – and more than 1,000 DC chargers with up to 300 kW in Europe.

"When battery electric vehicles had a limited range of less than 150 km, and charging took several hours, there was a central market segment for fuel cell vehicles: long-distance travel. The higher energy density of compressed hydrogen compared to batteries and the ability to refuel within a few minutes made fuel cell vehicles potentially ideal for frequent long-distance trips. However, battery electric vehicles today offer a real range of at least 400 km, and the latest generation uses an 800 V structure to recharge a range of 200 km in about 15 minutes," outlines Plötz the development.

Many ongoing investments in hydrogen cars seem to follow the sunk cost fallacy: We have already spent so much on this technology, we should not give up now. But as economies of scale in batteries fully come into play and further cost reductions and performance improvements in electric vehicles and charging infrastructure are underway, it is very unlikely that fuel cell cars will be competitive, Plötz further notes.

Trucks: Fuel cell lags behind battery

Hydrogen-powered truck technology is also less advanced than battery-powered, says Plötz, pointing to 30,000 battery electric trucks operating worldwide, most of them in China.

Fuel cell electric trucks, on the other hand, are currently only operated in test trials – by two manufacturers – and are not yet commercially available (Plötz).

He adds that more than 150 battery electric truck models for medium and heavy-duty transport have already been announced.

The current challenge for battery electric vehicles is the logistical long-distance operation with more than 100,000 km per year and the transport of very heavy goods, which means high energy consumption per kilometer. This is the frequently discussed use case for hydrogen trucks. Several truck manufacturers as well as fuel cell and infrastructure providers have teamed up and set the goal that by 2030, around 100,000 fuel cell trucks should be on European roads," explains the ISI expert.

This, however, seems very unlikely to him, given that companies are announcing the earliest start date for the production of commercial series trucks with fuel cells in 2027. By that time, the second generation of battery electric vehicles will be already commercially available and in operation, predicts Plötz. He explains that while long-distance trips of more than 500 km per day posed a challenge for battery electric options, European regulations require truck drivers to take a 45-minute break after more than four and a half hours of driving.

"Within 4.5 hours, a heavy truck could cover a maximum of 400 km, so practical ranges of about 450 km would be sufficient if high-power fast-charging stations for battery electric trucks were widely available. Charging 400 km in 45 minutes means about 800 kW average charging power for a heavy truck. The current fast-charging standard allows up to 350 kW. A new standard for megawatt charging systems is currently being developed, which is expected to enable charging power of over 2 MW," outlines Plötz.

Specifications are expected by the end of 2022, and the final standard is expected in 2023. Truck manufacturers are pushing for the establishment of a megawatt charging network in Europe, and possible locations for fast chargers have been proposed. A draft infrastructure proposal in Europe recommends placing high-power chargers every 50 km along the main road network, according to the ISI researcher. Plötz, who has been working on environmentally friendly transport since 2011, points to studies showing that the total operating costs for trucks with fuel cells are higher than for battery-powered models with megawatt charging stations and adds: 

"For trucks, operating costs are more important than for cars, so the use case for fuel cell trucks is even smaller."

Nevertheless, H2 trucks could have a practical advantage for "really heavy transports in remote areas," he explains, adding: 

"But the question remains whether such vehicles are suitable at all. Are such niche areas large enough to support the commercialization and economies of scale necessary for the production of fuel cell trucks and their infrastructure? Depending on the size of the niche, biofuels or renewable synthetic fuels could be sufficient to operate the application in a carbon-neutral manner after 2030."

Plötz concludes clearly, if truck manufacturers did not soon start mass production of fuel cell trucks to drive down costs, such vehicles would never establish themselves in low-carbon road transport.

"Politics and industry must quickly decide whether the niche for fuel cell trucks is large enough to support the further development of hydrogen technology, or whether it is time to cut losses in the possibly fruitless development and focus efforts elsewhere," concludes Plötz.