Fleet limit values: Announced disappointment - Rejection of a strong instrument

After the federal government, under pressure from the FDP's Ministry of Transport and with the approval of SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, failed to agree on the more ambitious position of the Green Ministry for the Environment, more criticism is emerging from experts. The decision is a "disappointment, but not much different from the disappointments of recent years," stated Peter Mock, Europe Director of the NGO International Council on Clean Transportation, to Spiegel Online. He acknowledged that at least the federal government would no longer actively work against EU plans, which aim for a 55 percent reduction in fleet emissions from cars and vans by 2030.

The Ministry of the Environment under Steffi Lemke had proposed a 75 percent reduction. However, she could not prevail and now sees it as a success that at least e-fuels cannot be counted toward fleet limits. Her ministry colleague Wissing still wants to continue promoting them, contrary to initial statements. The government is also aware, according to the ICCT, that more needs to be done for climate targets in the sector. For this, the limits are the best instrument. But if no further measures are taken, the goals are in jeopardy.

"There is definitely a possibility that the electric market will implode again at the moment when fleet targets no longer apply and purchase premiums expire," Mock warned.

From the ICCT chief's point of view, existing limits (currently 118 g CO2/km) have driven manufacturers to reduce emissions and bring electric vehicles to the market. Formally, all major car manufacturers in Europe met the emission targets for 2021, Mock praised.

Limits: Real Climate Protection or Just on Paper?

At the same time, Mock admitted that EU standards are not perfect either. Greenpeace criticizes in stronger terms, saying it is a "fairy tale of climate progress" and nothing more than a pure "paper value." After all, manufacturers can account for heavier cars with a weight bonus on CO2, the five percent of new cars with the highest emissions have not been counted since 2020, and plug-in hybrids also count as electric cars, for which so-called super credits are accounted for. Greenpeace also critically views the concept of CO2 pools, where manufacturers like Tesla can sell their zero emissions as credits, similar to the EU certificate trade.

Fleet Limits: Direct Impact on Manufacturers

This is repeatedly brought up as an EU-wide option for cars, mainly by the FDP, following the example of energy and industry, as well as an increased direct levy on fuel, which already exists. Both measures, however, would have to be so high, according to Peter Mock, that significant social disruptions would have to be expected. Generally, the correlation between fuel prices and demand decline is also low.

The approach of direct impact on manufacturers is more effective, as the boom in electric cars shows. The limits act as a driver here, says Friederike Piper, e-mobility consultant at the environmental umbrella organization T&E, which recently sharply criticized the government's decisions and predicted in a study with Nabu that climate targets would be widely missed. She sees the current targets for 2025 and 2030 as "low-hanging fruits" that could be achieved without much effort.

"Germany is obliged, not only for climate protection reasons but also in the interest of the future of the automotive industry in Germany, to advocate for stricter fleet limits. It would be fatal to let this current opportunity pass and not create planning security for the national industry. Because that would only benefit Chinese car manufacturers," Piper believes.

As alternatives to stricter limits, there are still more unpopular measures on the table, which the traffic light coalition and especially the FDP also shun: a bonus-malus system in car taxes for the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles, the elimination of company car and diesel privileges, a speed limit on highways, or a car toll. The coalition is likely to continue relying on generous purchase premiums, the effectiveness of which is further in question after recent reports on the rapid and targeted resale of German e-cars abroad.