Exxon Mobil and the climate crisis: For they knew very well what they were doing

The oil company Exxon Mobil had known much earlier and in far more detail about the consequences of burning fossil fuels on the global climate. This is the result of an analysis by the journal Science, reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung. For the analysis, scientists, including Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), evaluated 32 internal documents and 72 studies on global warming, in which company researchers were involved from 1977 to 2002.

"We can say that most of their predictions forecast warming that corresponds to later observations. Their predictions also agree with those of independent academic and governmental models and are at least as good as these," concluded the researchers.

They found a stark contrast between this level of knowledge and the company's public statements, which contradicted their own research and misled the public about the causes and consequences of global warming. As early as 2017, it was proven that the company's communication had long aimed at sowing doubts about climate change, even though there was already consensus among their own scientists that burning fossil resources was the cause. "Emphasize the uncertainties," stated a 1988 memo. Or that science was unable to confirm that "the use of fossil fuels has led to significant global warming." Climate science was uncertain, the understanding insufficient "to make reasonable predictions and/or justify drastic actions," according to former CEO Lee Raymond.

More precise than NASA climatology

Over the years, Exxon researchers had created over 16 temperature curves, of which twelve were backed by climate models they had developed themselves. Ten of them showed a very precise match with the later real observed values. In some cases, they even surpassed university and government research and achieved higher precision in forecasts than a renowned NASA climatologist.

Due to their misleading communication despite better knowledge, several oil companies are now facing court. For instance, there is a lawsuit against Chevron. Shell was sentenced to more climate protection in 2021. Additionally, Naomi Oreskes from Harvard University criticized that there are continued heavy investments in the exploitation of oil and gas reserves and an overemphasis on investment in biofuels.