Experts' Advice: Germany Not on Climate Course - Rapid Transport Transition Needed

Unlike the Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Robert Habeck (Green Party), the most important climate expert panel of the German government does not see Germany on course for climate protection. The target for reducing greenhouse gases by 2030 is expected to be missed, explained the chairman of the Expert Council on Climate Issues, Hans-Martin Henning, in a statement released in Berlin on Monday. In a special report of around 130 pages, the Expert Council reviewed the projections, or forecasts, from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). In effect, the Council recommends that the government quickly examine new climate protection instruments, particularly in the areas of transportation and buildings. The Ministry of Transport promptly and predictably deflected: it faces significantly greater challenges in the transport sector than in others and is generally against prohibitions, according to a blanket statement from the department of FDP Minister Volker Wissing. The core problem is seen by experts in the cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund. The Climate Protection Ministry would like this fund's financing to be readdressed in the 2025 budget discussions. However, it is questionable whether the FDP will agree, as Finance Minister Christian Lindner strictly insists on the debt brake. But the scientists can substantiate their push and demand a faster transformation.

"We wanted to know more precisely what risks and uncertainties exist in our calculations of the climate protection impact. The Expert Council has now clearly identified these. We take these assessments very seriously. Only if we stay on course can we achieve the 2030 climate target. Especially in the transport sector, the challenges remain significant," explained Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Stefan Wenzel, immediately regarding the first and self-commissioned report.

The 2024 projection data now show, according to the BMWK, that the 2030 climate targets are fundamentally attainable, provided that the assumptions and conditions made can be realized. The Expert Council has extensively outlined where it sees risks and uncertainties concerning these assumptions. The BMWK had already pointed out such risks and uncertainties when presenting the projections, insisted the Habeck ministry.

Expert Council expects target shortfall

Habeck had stated in mid-March: "If we stay on course, we will achieve our 2030 climate targets." The Expert Council sees it differently. According to the Climate Protection Act, Germany's greenhouse gas emissions should decrease by at least 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. By 2040, they should decrease by at least 88 percent, and by 2050, Germany should be climate-neutral – not emitting more greenhouse gases than can be reabsorbed.

"In total, we cannot confirm the cumulative target achievement for the years 2021 to 2030 indicated by the 2024 projection data; on the contrary, we expect a target shortfall," explained Henning.

Why the Expert Council is pessimistic

According to the UBA projections announced by Habeck in March, Germany would narrowly stay within the legally allowed budget for greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Expert Council does not expect this to happen and cites two reasons:

• Firstly, the projection data lacked information on the likelihood that greenhouse gas emissions would actually develop as assumed. Based on its calculations, the Expert Council assumes that the 2030 target should not be expected to be achieved – even though emissions are expected to decrease significantly. The forecasted emissions in the areas of energy, buildings, and transport, as well as to a limited extent in the industry, were underestimated by the experts.
• This leads to the second reason: Important developments were not included in the Federal Environment Agency's calculations. Habeck's optimism was based on partly outdated assumptions, as critics pointed out in March. The calculations only included data up to October 2023. But only after that did the important energy transition fund, the Climate and Transformation Fund, get cut due to the austerity measures from the Karlsruhe budget ruling. The Expert Council points to these cuts but also to changing market expectations for gas prices and certificate prices in the European emissions trading system. In the emissions trading system, companies can trade rights to emit greenhouse gases (certificates).