Elon Musk vs. German automakers: The race for autonomous driving
While the USA scores with deregulation and technological advancement, a pressing question arises: Is Germany at risk of falling behind in the global race for the mobility of the future?
Between Technological Vision and Legal Framework
In the USA, self-driving vehicles with Level-4 technology are already a reality. They navigate completely autonomously under certain conditions – a progress that has been realized in Europe only to a limited extent so far. The approaches of the major players differ significantly: Waymo relies on LiDAR technology and highly accurate HD maps that pre-record the environment. Tesla, on the other hand, follows a "Camera Only" approach that relies solely on cameras.
In the USA, the approval process for autonomous technologies is significantly advancing more quickly than in Germany – a pace that could gain additional speed through further deregulations. Tesla's ambitious plans for the "Cybercab" robotaxi, announced for 2026, could particularly benefit from this. The vehicle comes without a steering wheel and pedals and relies entirely on cameras as sensors. This minimalist concept aims to drastically reduce production costs. At the same time, dispensing with expensive laser radar systems gives Tesla a decisive competitive advantage in the race for the future of mobility.
Tesla's plans for the "Cybercab" face significant regulatory challenges: The U.S. traffic safety authority NHTSA is currently examining safety concerns against a purely camera-based system. Existing regulations simultaneously hinder the mass production of vehicles without steering wheels and pedals – a central element of the Tesla plan. If Elon Musk were to take on a political role in the future, he could specifically work towards regulatory adjustments that would significantly pave the way for his revolutionary robotaxi and accelerate its market entry.
USA vs. Europe: A Race for the Future of Mobility
The technological race between the USA and Europe in the area of autonomous driving could hardly be more contrasting. While the USA focuses on rapid progress and innovation, European countries – led by Germany – proceed more cautiously and regulatory. Both strategies have their pros and cons: The rapid progress in the USA accelerates technological breakthroughs, but also entails risks, not just of a technical nature. Societal acceptance can suffer if changes occur so rapidly that consumers can hardly keep pace mentally. In San Francisco, Waymo's autonomous vehicles are repeatedly attacked by upset pedestrians.
In Europe, societal acceptance of new technologies plays a central role, which is why a gradual introduction of autonomous vehicles is considered sensible. Nonetheless, German automakers are faced with a critical question: Do they need to accelerate their innovation strategies to keep pace with the advances of Tesla and other U.S. market leaders? While more and more level-4 vehicles are already being tested in the USA, the comparatively slow pace in Europe could prove to be a competitive disadvantage in the long term.
Redundancy as a Safety Buffer
A key issue in autonomous driving is the technology that ensures safe vehicle navigation. Tesla argues that its "Camera Only" system is sufficient, as human drivers also use only visual perceptions. This approach, however, falls short.
For truly safe semi- or fully-automated driving, vehicles must do more: In addition to optical perception through cameras, technologies such as LiDAR and radar are indispensable. This technological redundancy provides a significant safety advantage by having each technology play to its strengths in specific situations – cameras in daylight, LiDAR for precise environment data even at night, and radar for motion detection and in poor light conditions. This safety gain is crucial to strengthen the trust of people in autonomous vehicles. Only if systems are significantly safer than human driving will it be possible to promote acceptance for this future technology.
For German automakers, it is important to rely on a combination of different perception technologies in the development of autonomous vehicles. Only in this way can maximum safety be ensured and customer trust strengthened. At the same time, there is a need to increase the speed of innovation. This is crucial not only to remain competitive internationally but also to advance the societal acceptance of autonomous technologies.
What Do Robotaxis Mean for the Automotive Industry?
The widespread introduction of robotaxis could have significant economic impacts on traditional automakers. A growing market for autonomous taxis could challenge the classic model of private vehicle ownership, as fewer and fewer people would own cars. This could lead to a declining demand for conventional vehicles. For established manufacturers, this means that they have to realign their business models to remain competitive in the changing mobility landscape.
Robotaxis, however, could also significantly increase efficiency in the transportation sector by optimizing traffic flow, relieving parking spaces, and reducing CO2 emissions. This could allow the automotive industry to make a valuable contribution to improving the environmental balance. Nevertheless, numerous technological challenges still need to be addressed and consumer trust won.
New Course for German Manufacturers: Strategies for Success
For German automobile manufacturers, it is crucial to align their strategies not only with technological requirements but also to consider the regulatory and cultural differences between markets. The US market demonstrates how quickly progress can be made in autonomous driving, offering German companies valuable learning opportunities to specifically enhance their competitiveness.
Autonomous driving is an extremely complex challenge that combines technological, societal, and legal dimensions. German manufacturers must develop long-term strategies that promote innovation while meeting the specific requirements of the markets. Similar to a race where drivers use drafting to save energy and optimally position themselves, companies can benefit from not being the first. They gain valuable time to learn from the mistakes of pioneers and to design their own solutions specifically and more robustly.
However, it is not about permanently trailing behind. The key to success lies in recognizing the right moment to accelerate out of the draft and take the lead—strengthened by valuable experiences, optimized technologies, and a solid foundation.
What does this mean?
The development of autonomous vehicles requires not only technological excellence but also the ability to flexibly respond to challenges, whether it be missing road markings or extreme weather conditions.
A decisive success factor will be consumer trust, which can only be built through safe, reliable, and transparent technologies. Therefore, German manufacturers must not only test various technologies—from camera and radar to lidar systems—but also provide clear and convincing answers to questions about safety and usability.
At the same time, they must ensure that legal frameworks do not hinder innovation but actively promote it. This requires close collaboration with politics and society. With a clear vision and a strategic approach that combines both flexibility and foresight, German automobile manufacturers can not only keep up in the global competition but also establish themselves as leading players in the future of mobility.
Discussing the race for autonomous driving with us is Peter Ivanov, Managing Director Automotive/Mobility at Valtech
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