E-Mobility: How We Can Be So Wrong!

Two years ago, bankers were still proclaiming that hydrogen would win the race and that our charging stations would no longer be needed. In September 2021, for the first time, an all-electric vehicle, Tesla's Model 3, was the best-selling car in Europe – across all drive types.

Therefore, this column will be really fun today. Here are ten turbulent years in review.

2016 – Our board member and futurist Lars Thomsen was laughed at again at an event because he calculated and forecasted that in six years one-third of all cars sold would be electrically powered.

2017 – In e-mobility forums, we were heavily dissed because, as newcomers, we had virtually founded the segment of high-performance mobile charging stations. Those who have been tinkering with e-charging solutions for twenty years did not like our instant success. Nevertheless, today our stations are by far the best-selling in Europe, as a recent Amazon analysis revealed.

2018 – Tesla begins producing the Model 3 in a tent. This draws a lot of ridicule, especially in Europe: "electric wheelchairs can already be made this way" is one of the more flattering assessments.

2019 – The FAZ celebrates its foresight with an article titled "Only 99 Percent Don't Buy an Electric Car." The editorial staff clearly still considers e-mobility to be a niche.

2020 – Perception slowly changes: Daimler CEO Zetsche, upon retiring, announces that he believes that by 2025 half of all cars sold in Europe will be electric. Thus, the inventor of the internal combustion engine car semi-officially ushers in the next era.

2021 – Europe agrees on a ban on combustion engines in nine or fourteen years, depending on the country. This is amusing because the market will regulate this much earlier. Even the consulting firm EY (Ernst & Young), known for being conservative, concludes that by 2022, 32% of cars sold in Germany will have a plug. No wonder, over 300 new electric models will be introduced in 2022 alone. This assessment is likely too conservative, as by fall 2021 over 30% of cars sold in Germany are BEVs or PHEVs.

2022 – Several trends are emerging in the charging infrastructure. The most important one: The three-phase 11 kW AC charger is becoming the standard. On the vehicle side, this onboard charger size is easy to install and sufficient to fully charge even 80 kWh batteries overnight. For installations in private, communal, or public garages, this power level is the best compromise between cost and benefit.

And now we dare to look into the future:

2023 – The proportion of electrified vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) will exceed registrations of diesel and gasoline cars in Europe in the first half of the year. Electric vehicles will become financially and directly more attractive to more people compared to internal combustion engines.

2024 – First families face financial problems because they can no longer sell their old combustion vehicles. Instead of earning twenty thousand euros for their used car, they now have to pay extra to have their old car disposed of. This year it will become clear even to the last laggards: gasoline and diesel cars are dead.

2025 – Europe will advance the combustion engine bans to keep up with the pace of development. Automobile associations will begin to advocate strongly for three or four "combustion Sundays" a year, where one can still drive their old machines in the next decade. The "Steamship Friends Association" will include the preservation of one or two internal combustion engine vehicles in their statutes.

What is most surprising: Everything up to and including 2021 is actually accurate, as incredible as it may sound. Therefore, I am confident that the predictions made by Lars Thomsen and Juice for the coming years will also come true. Want to bet?

Happy Holidays,

Christoph Erni.