E-Fuels: With the smoke screen into the abyss?

It can probably only be described as a farce what Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing did in March regarding the EU decision on the combustion engine ban. Because if there are people who can count in the Ministry of Transport, and I assume there are, then they surely know that e-fuels, given an efficiency of around 10% in the well-to-wheel consideration and costs per liter that are beyond reason, have no chance in road transport. They could only be an option for long-haul flights and possibly ocean ships.

Delaying the End of the Combustion Engine

No, why Wissing's FDP really cares instead of e-fuels is to delay the end of the combustion engine for as long as possible. Because an option for the continuation of this essentially obsolete technology means further investments in it in the coming years. Promptly, some car manufacturers have already announced their intention to withdraw funds from alternative drive technologies and transfer them to Euro 7 & Co.

Next Car a Petrol Engine

Meanwhile, the German automotive industry has just decided to embrace electromobility. Their years-long campaign against modern drive technology led to a low desire in Germany for a switch from combustion engines to electric cars. In a recent Forsa survey, respondents not only repeated the eternally false myths about the latter but also increasingly wished for a petrol engine as the next car. Even worse: The future field of electric vehicles has been left to American and especially Chinese manufacturers. Audi CEO Markus Duesmann recently stated in the "Handelsblatt" that "we are seeing a rapid change in important markets like China – by 2025, at the latest by 2026, more electric cars than combustion engines will likely be sold there."

Not a Good Outlook Regarding China

The fatal thing about the development: The Chinese especially love homegrown electric brands. I predict that the German automotive industry will face tough times in the next five years because currently, it still makes more than half of its global sales in the Middle Kingdom – almost exclusively with combustion engines. VW has already started to practically give these away in China, as new emission regulations are expected to come into effect in the People's Republic from July. This is likely just the beginning. Meanwhile, a domestic manufacturer like Geely's subsidiary Zeekr has introduced a vehicle with the 009 model, which has a real-world range of 500 to 800 km thanks to CATL's 140 kWh Qilin battery, making it perfectly suitable for everyday use.

Yutong and BYD Have Arrived

A dozen years ago, after the largely failed coach offensive by Chinese manufacturers in Europe, I predicted that they would never make it on this continent unless they were allowed a backdoor with electric buses. Well, in the meantime, Yutong and BYD are two of the most successful market participants in this segment.

Norway is Going Electric

And anyone wanting a preview of how the car market in Germany will develop should simply look at Norway. There, about ten years ago, they began to initiate the transition to electric cars, partly with massive state start-up funding. According to the association OFV, the share of electric cars in total new registrations reached 79% in 2022, and even 86.8% in March 2023. Purely petrol and diesel cars together accounted for only 2.7% – despite the value-added tax exemption for more expensive cars like the Tesla Model Y being removed at the beginning of the year and an additional tax based on weight being introduced. Nevertheless, the US brand achieved a total of 9,471 electric car sales in Norway – including 8,714 Model Y – in the first quarter, which accounts for a market share of 33%. No car brand has ever achieved such a high monthly value in the Scandinavian country.

Among the followers, the best-selling car was Toyota's electric bZ4X with 6.1% in the quarter. The Volkswagen models ID.4 and ID.3 each achieved less than 5%, which is why the Volvo XC40 was still ahead of them. Despite the many registrations of electric cars in the past five years, only about a quarter of the cars in Norway are fully electric. This shows how long such a fleet swap takes and how urgently it would be necessary for the rest of Europe to end the sale of combustion engines as quickly as possible in order to achieve its climate targets – especially in the transport sector.

Meanwhile, Volker Wissing continues to wander with an e-fuel-driven smokescreen in hand through the darkness – hopefully not towards an abyss.