DNV Report: Halving Oil Demand in Transport by 2050

Traffic is facing a major emissions problem – its share of total emissions is increasing. While 25 percent of emissions are currently attributed to passenger and freight traffic, this figure will rise to 30 percent by 2050. The reason for this is that a large part of the transport system will continue to rely on fossil fuels. The energy mix of maritime transport will consist of approximately 50 percent low-carbon or carbon-free fuels by 2050. This is reported by DNV, an international classification society for the maritime industry.

Oil with Endurance in Air and Sea

The company, which also offers testing, certification, and technical advisory services for the energy value chain, including renewable energies, oil and gas, and energy management, expects that oil will have endurance in aviation and maritime transport. Strict political measures are needed to ensure the necessary decarbonization towards hydrogen and sustainable biofuels.

According to the latest report published by DNV under the title "Transport in Transition," the share of electricity in transport is expected to rise from today's one percent to around 23 percent by 2050. At the same time, sectors like heavy-duty transport and aviation, which were previously considered difficult to electrify, are seeing increasing significance of electrification.

Electrification Will Take Time

DNV's "Transport in Transition" report aims to provide deep insights into the energy transition in transport – described as the most dynamic sector of energy demand by 2050. The report relies on DNV's system dynamics-based Energy Transition Outlook model and examines the tremendous changes in fuels, electricity, and infrastructure required to transport an ever-growing number of people and freight volumes while simultaneously decarbonizing the sector.

Speed significantly behind Paris climate goals

Despite the forecasted halving of oil demand in the transport sector by 2050, the current pace of conversion remains well behind the goals of the Paris Agreement. The possibilities to accelerate the transformation through pilot projects and the introduction of alternative energies must be utilized as soon as possible.

Road transport is leading in reducing dependence on fossil fuels, with daily consumption dropping from today's 38 million barrels per day (bpd) to 19 million bpd by 2050, which equates to a decrease from 91 percent to 57 percent. Conversely, oil consumption in air transport will remain virtually unchanged by 2050, with the hydrocarbon share in this sector standing at 60 percent in the same year.

Europe among the leaders in BEV adoption

As part of decarbonization, the fuel mix in the maritime sector will also change significantly in the upcoming decades. By 2050, it will likely transition from an almost exclusively oil-based energy mix to one composed of 50 percent low-carbon and carbon-free fuels, 19 percent natural gas, and 18 percent biomass. The share of electricity will be only four percent, primarily in short-sea shipping and during port stays for larger vessels.

Regions such as Europe, North America, and Greater China are pioneers in the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV). At the same time, these regions are investing in hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels as the promising option for long-haul heavy goods transport. At the other end of the spectrum, regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Northeast Eurasia are still far from building the infrastructure and generating the amounts of renewable electricity necessary for the decarbonization of road transport.