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Deloitte Forecast: Only Eleven Million E-cars by 2030

(dpa/jr) The traffic light coalition wanted to make Germany the leading international market for electric cars - a difficult goal anyway given China's lead. The public has not been on board so far, hampered by partly populist politics and a glorification of combustion engines. And the leading market is now long since China.

Doesn't seem contagious: Electric car sales are not taking off in this country, and the vision of being a lead market is becoming a distant dream. | Photo: dpa/Marco Rauch
Doesn't seem contagious: Electric car sales are not taking off in this country, and the vision of being a lead market is becoming a distant dream. | Photo: dpa/Marco Rauch
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The number of electric cars in Germany will grow much slower in the coming years according to projections by the consulting firm Deloitte than hoped by the broken traffic light coalition. By 2030, only 11.2 million fully electric battery cars might be on the roads, instead of the 15 million targeted in the coalition agreement. A widespread skepticism among the population also contributes to this according to a survey.

Target in the Coalition Agreement

SPD, Greens, and FDP had set the goal of at least 15 million electric cars in the coalition agreement, aiming to make the Federal Republic a leading market for electromobility. Cars with hybrid engines were not included. The international leading market for electric cars is China anyway. At the end of December 2023, the federal government abruptly withdrew the subsidy for e-cars due to budget problems, and consequently, sales figures dropped significantly.

“To promote the acceptance of electromobility, reliable framework conditions are essential, as companies need planning security. This should go hand in hand with a comprehensive and reliable network of charging stations,” said Harald Proff, head of the automotive division at Deloitte.

So far, only just under 1.6 million fully electric cars registered

The estimate of a little over 11 million battery cars by 2030 is based on a calculation model that incorporates many factors crucial for purchasing decisions. These include the development of electricity and gasoline prices, as well as the prices of car insurance and purchase premiums. As of October 1st, nearly 1.6 million battery cars were registered in Germany according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority.

 

Population Divided

According to a Deloitte survey, the population remains divided on the issue of electric vehicles: forty percent of 1,000 respondents consider the EU's planned sales ban on new combustion cars from 2035 to be sensible, but 36 percent reject this as a bad or even very bad decision. The remaining 24 percent are neutral.

Consultants See Electric Cars on an Unstoppable Global Rise

Nevertheless, Deloitte consultants believe that electric cars will prevail internationally, and that the shift towards electromobility can no longer be stopped in light of global regulations, new players, and ongoing global warming.

"Companies are well advised to invest more in battery research, lower vehicle prices, and strengthen the acceptance of e-mobility," says Proff.

Alongside the shift in propulsion, changed mobility habits are essential to protect the climate. Automotive expert Proff explains: "Smart mobility, which uses apps and new technologies to show the fastest and most convenient mode of transportation, can motivate sustainable behavior, such as forgoing the use of one's own car. At the same time, automotive companies can generate new revenue with such mobility concepts. There is huge potential here that is far from being exhausted."

 

Translated automatically from German.
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