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Dataforce Study: Van Electrification Stalls
The fleet data specialist Dataforce has conducted a recent analysis of the van market and particularly sees the electrification stagnating. Compared to new passenger car registrations, the volume of light commercial vehicles newly registered in Germany is significantly lower.
Overall positive result for the van market
In August 2024, the van market in Germany saw a significant decline of 21.8 percent compared to the same month last year. However, the end of the environmental bonus for commercial customers, which also applies to light commercial vehicles, on the deadline of September 1, 2023, caused substantial pre-purchase effects, especially in August 2023.
When looking at the entire period from January to August, the overall result appears much more positive with an increase of 7.1 percent. Furthermore, the two direct customer channels, the fleet market (+6.3 percent with a 50 percent share of all new registrations) and the private market (+7.5 percent), are both in positive territory. However, new registrations from car dealers are also currently at a fairly high level, with a share of 17 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. According to analysts, this is partly due to an increased demand for demonstration vehicles because of the introduction of new model generations or revised series, including at Ford and several Stellantis brands.
5-Percent Threshold: Electrification Still in the Niche
The aforementioned pre-emption effect in August of the previous year is noticeable overall, but particularly so with electric registrations. These are currently met with little enthusiasm from customers. In the first eight months of the year, the share of fully electric vans is below the five percent threshold, compared to eight percent in the same period last year. Diesel engines remain unchallenged at the top. The self-igniting engines were even able to expand their share to the current 86 percent.
Fleet Managers Remain Skeptical About Electric Vehicles
However, there is still some convincing to be done, as shown by the results from the Dataforce Transport Study 2024. On one hand, 12 percent of the fleet managers surveyed indicated that they already use at least one electric transporter in their fleet, and another 15 percent can very well imagine incorporating such a vehicle into their fleet in the next two years. On the other hand, nearly a quarter of the respondents remain uncertain, and a full 49 percent, as of today, simply rule it out. The results vary significantly depending on the industry and fleet size.
The concerns are comparable to those of passenger car users, primarily the (still) insufficient range, the still too high price levels, and the lack of public and private charging points. Despite the diverse current challenges, our survey gives reason for optimism looking toward the coming year. Not a few fleet managers plan to expand their transporter fleet in the future. Moreover, reducing their own CO2 footprint is clearly on the agenda of many companies, and switching to fully electric models is a very important part of that.
Translated automatically from German.
Branchenguide
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