Dataforce Analysis: Slump in Electric Vehicles - Is Fleet Electrification in Crisis?

While new car registrations in the German fleet market in September were only slightly below last year's level with a drop of three percent, the volume of purely battery-electric vehicles plummeted by a whopping 49 percent. This is the finding of the latest analysis by data specialist Dataforce. With only 9 percent, their share of the total fleet sales in September was just over half as high as the 17 percent in September 2022. This was the lowest value in almost three years (October 2020). Are German fleet managers increasingly opting for combustion models again, and is electrification now coming to a halt, pose Dataforce analysts.

Detailed analysis shows special situation

A closer look reveals that the September result can be explained by special circumstances. The end of the subsidies leads to enormous advance effects. The current development in electric registrations is a prime example of how much the (political) conditions can influence the market. On September 1, 2023, the federal government ended e-car subsidies for company cars and other commercial registrations. From now on, only private owners will benefit from this government support. Whether this decision is conducive to the politically desired further ramp-up of electromobility can be doubted, say the authors. It seems as though the importance of the fleet customer group for new car sales as well as the used car market was not fully understood, and its significance for achieving climate goals was underestimated.

Advance effects clearly visible

The cut-off date of September 1 naturally ensured, according to the analysis, that commercial owners pulled out all the stops to register their BEVs by the end of August. These efforts were evidently successful, as seen in the registration numbers. With an astounding increase of 300 percent and a record share of no less than 37 percent of all new car registrations in August. This puts the September slump into perspective.
 

Diesel and PHEVs continue to lose ground

In the first nine months, one in five new car registrations in the fleet was fully electric. When looking at the cumulative period from January to the end of September, it becomes apparent that BEVs are among the winners. Their share among corporate customers grew by 6 percentage points to now 20 percent. The largest group continues to be diesel engines (including diesel mild hybrids) with a share of 37 percent. However, their lead over gasoline engines amounts to less than 5 percentage points. Plug-in hybrids have clearly lost ground. Here too, the end of subsidies at the turn of the year led to declining sales and registrations and an almost halving of their share.

These EVs are preferred as company cars:

The ranking of the most successful electric models among fleet customers has mainly been a matter of Tesla and the VW Group so far this year. Behind the No. 1, the Tesla Model Y, come five vehicles from the Volkswagen world: the ID.4, ID.3, Skoda Enyaq (excluding the Coupé), Cupra Born, and Audi Q4 e-tron (excluding the Sportback). The top 10 electric vehicles are then rounded out by the Tesla Model 3, BMW iX1, VW ID.5, and Mercedes EQA.