Dataforce Analysis: Passenger Car Market Weaker - Tactical Registration of Hybrids, BEVs Continue to Decline
The German passenger car market lost 0.5 percent in November compared to the same month last year. However, there was also one fewer working day available. To better assess this month's performance, it is worthwhile to look at the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), which projects the annual result if every month had progressed like the current one.
Special influences distort the picture
In November, this figure stands at 2.94 million cars and is significantly better than in October (2.73 million). The overall market is therefore not performing badly in November, but a look at the channels reveals that this is only half the truth. Particularly the channels worthwhile for manufacturers declined. The private market suffered the most with a decrease of 9.3 percent, followed by the relevant fleet market with a decline of 3.9 percent. The growth in the overall market is primarily due to strong increases in special influences (+13.0 percent). Particularly noticeable is the vehicle trade, which grows by 16.0 percent due to self-registrations. The same applies to vehicle manufacturing with an increase of 7.4 percent. Tactical registrations are also often achieved through special offers to rental companies. Consequently, an increase of 12.8 percent among car rental companies is not surprising and fits the current picture.
Tactical Registrations in All (Mild) Hybrids
The previously mentioned self-registrations were very significant in November, particularly in the hybrid sector. Full and mild hybrids grew extremely strongly in the overall market (+80 percent). The unusually high growth was favored by massive self-registrations. Vehicle construction (+290 percent), car rental companies (+175 percent), and car dealerships (+69 percent) each contributed significantly.
The other form of hybrids, namely plug-in hybrids, also grew exceptionally strong in the overall market compared to other fuel types (+14 percent). However, this growth primarily came from the "rewarding" channels: private (+26 percent) and fleet (+26 percent). Self-registrations were hardly present. However, the increase in full and mild hybrids particularly suggests that manufacturers with a small range of pure electric cars are making significant efforts and attempting to replace pure combustion engines with hybrids to achieve better CO2 values.
Registration Numbers Passenger Cars January-November 2024. | Photo: DATAFORCE
Registration numbers for transporters January-November 2024. | Photo: DATAFORCE
Fewer E-Cars
Electric cars saw a double-digit decline in November for the first time, down 22 percent. However, this is not surprising as many manufacturers prefer to include them in their financial statements next year, and therefore postpone deliveries accordingly. In the private market, electric cars dropped by 57 percent. This is mainly due to the fact that strong advance purchase effects driven by the end of EV subsidies boosted the market last year – thus making the declines in the private market appear more dramatic than they actually are.
Transporters on the Rise
Compared to the passenger car market, the transporter market was able to increase in November. A solid 7 percent gain is noted, with growth also coming from the private market (+19 percent) and the fleet market (5 percent). In terms of volume, both channels are on par with their gains – more than 1,000 vehicles could be added in each case. All fuel types were able to increase, even electric (+3 percent). Particularly noteworthy is the +45 percent among gasoline vehicles.
Translated automatically from German.“Tactical registrations dilute the development of the total market. However, if you look a little behind the scenes, the image of a weakening market manifests itself. However, for the customer side, that's not at all incorrect, because today's self-registrations come with strong discounts on the market tomorrow. No customer should complain about that,” explains Julian Litzinger, Automotive Analyst at DATAFORCE.
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