Coronavirus: DLR Survey Sees Public Transport as the Loser - Car as the Winner

Significant Drop in Christmas Travel

The overwhelming majority of 80 percent indicate they do not plan to travel during the holidays. Only eight percent plan a trip, five percent were unsure at the time of the survey. Six percent did not know, regardless of the Corona pandemic, where they would spend Christmas.

“If all the undecided stay at home, travel volume will decrease by 60 percent compared to previous years. Due to the intensified lockdown in mid-December, a significant decline is very likely,” explains DLR researcher Claudia Nobis.

Whether a trip is planned for Christmas strongly depends on behavior from the previous year. Those who traveled in 2019 (22 percent) also plan to travel in 2020. The younger the respondents, the higher the percentage planning to travel: 19 percent among those under 29, but only two percent among those over 65.

Trend Towards Online Shopping Influences Mobility

Corona continues to have a significant impact on the shopping behavior of Germans, according to the findings. The proportion of people who have purchased products online since the first lockdown in the spring continues to rise. 50 percent stated they had ordered online one to three times in the last four weeks. 36 percent do this weekly. Only 14 percent have not ordered anything. At the same time, the number of respondents who feel uncomfortable shopping in stores has increased since summer. The internet is also more important for buying Christmas gifts than the previous year: 37 percent said they mostly buy their gifts online, compared to 22 percent the previous year.

Car Versus Public Transport: Comfort and Discomfort

Mobility behavior is shaped by routines. These show high stability even in a crisis. However, new routines have been forming during the ongoing Corona situation, summarizes Claudia Nobis.

“This includes increasing numbers of people using private cars – independent of the normal seasonal increase in winter. At the same time, the dramatic decline in the use of public transportation continues.”

More than half of the study participants took fewer trips by public transport. The proportion of people taking much fewer trips by public transport has risen to 37 percent, 16 percent more than in the summer. The main reason for this is that discomfort in public transport has increased again, according to the analysis. In contrast, the car still shows a clear comfort factor.

Significantly Fewer Trips Again

During the lockdown in November, the respondents significantly reduced their mobility once again, the researchers found. 56 percent traveled fewer or much fewer routes in the last seven days than usual. For the first time, DLR asked respondents to estimate which modes of transport they will use in the future.

“The answers clearly reflect the new behavior developed during the pandemic,” explains Nobis.

18 percent wanted to walk more, six percent to cycle more, and nine percent to use the car more. 19 percent stated they want to use public transport less often.

Home Office and Leisure Time with Changes

Working from home still plays an important role. The proportion of employed people working from home has slightly increased: 40 percent of respondents work partially or always from home. Even in more rural regions, this seems to be increasing; in cities, more home office work is generally done. However, satisfaction with working from home has dropped: In the summer, around 75 percent rated this option positively, now it is 66 percent. Many people also reported feeling uncomfortable during leisure activities, especially meeting friends, relatives, or acquaintances. Due to the lockdown, 37 percent have not engaged in any leisure activities outside in the last seven days. 63 percent have gone out at least once – often for a walk or outdoor sports.

New Routines – and Wrong Ones – Are Forming

Mobility decisions are not made anew every day, according to the researchers. People’s behavior is rather shaped by routines that show high stability even in a crisis. During the spring lockdown, it was not random people who switched to the two individually usable and infection-risk-safe means of transport, bicycles and private cars.

“It was mainly people for whom these modes of transport already played a role in everyday mobility before the spread of the Corona virus,” according to the findings.

Nevertheless, people’s routines show differences over the course of the year. People cycle more on average in the summer. In the winter, public transportation and private cars are used more frequently. A change in the membership of modal groups was therefore to be expected. The shift between groups in autumn 2020 compared to the summer only partly corresponds to the seasonal pattern.

Corona Factor: Exclusive Use of Car and Bike Increases

In normal everyday life before the outbreak of the Corona virus, half of the respondents used only the car. This behavior received a significant boost during the lockdown. The small group of everyday cyclists also grew by half during this time. In contrast, the exclusive use of public transport and multimodal behavior lost significance. By late June/early July, the situation largely corresponded to the pre-lockdown state. However, the proportion of monomodal car users was still five percentage points above its original level. The group of public transport users had only partially returned to normal everyday life.

More Monomodal Travel Than Usual

In the current survey, the researchers further noted the following peculiarities: The increase in the proportion of monomodal car users exceeds the normal seasonal rise. In contrast, the monomodal use of public transport – contrary to the usual seasonal increase – remains at a low level and even drops by one percentage point. Accordingly, the proportion of multimodal individuals is also low. Only the proportion of cyclists corresponds to the normal value. In the ongoing crisis, this leads to a further consolidation of car usage routines, according to the findings.