Copernicus Report: Global Warming at 1.6 Degrees - Complete Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels Necessary
According to a report, the year 2024 was the first since measurements began to be, on average, more than 1.5 degrees warmer worldwide than the pre-industrial average. This also made it the warmest year ever recorded, as reported by the climate change service of the EU Copernicus program in Reading, UK. In recent months, it had already presented similar preliminary estimates.
The year was reportedly even 1.6 degrees warmer than the estimated average temperature from 1850 to 1900. At the same time, each of the last ten years (2015-2024) ranked among the ten warmest since records began.
Report is a "Warning Signal"
"All globally compiled international temperature data show that 2024 was the warmest year since records began in 1850," emphasized Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The vast data set is derived from satellites, ships, airplanes, and weather stations worldwide.
"This report is a warning signal because we must do everything possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," says Niklas Höhne, co-founder of the NewClimate Institute. "We need to do more than we have so far."
According to Copernicus, the global average temperature in 2024 was 15.10 degrees, 0.12 degrees above that of 2023, the previous warmest year on record. A new record for the hottest day was set on July 22, 2024, with a global temperature of 17.16 degrees. 2024 was also the warmest measured year in Europe and, according to the German Weather Service, also in Germany.
The Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 aimed to limit global warming to as close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels as possible. However, not only was 2024 already warmer, but the two-year average for 2023 and 2024 was 1.54 degrees, as Copernicus reported. "This does not mean that we have exceeded the threshold set in the Paris Agreement." The agreement refers to temperature deviations averaged over a period of at least 20 years.
Numerous Extreme Events Even at Today's Temperatures
"I no longer consider the 1.5-degree target to be viable," said Andreas Fink from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). According to his knowledge, technologies for CO2 removal from the atmosphere will not be able to extract the necessary amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere in the coming decades. It is therefore absolutely necessary to swiftly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of escalating climate change are significantly higher than the shift away from coal, oil, and gas.
1.5 degrees is a political target, beyond which things happen "that we no longer consider acceptable," said Höhne. 2024 showed how dangerous the temperature level already is. "There were extreme events all over the world: temperatures over 50 degrees, extreme rainfall that brought as much rain in one day as in a year, and massive fires that could not be extinguished," emphasized the climate researcher. "As long as we emit greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to rise, and with it the probability of these extreme events."
The Oceans Are Also Heating Up
Not only land areas, but also the oceans were warmer than ever in the annual average since the beginning of measurements. This applies both to the surface temperatures and to the stored heat down to a depth of 2,000 meters, reports a team led by Lijing Cheng from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The heating of the oceans to depths of 2,000 meters is even accelerating.
The oceans are very significant for the Earth's climate because they absorb around 90 percent of the heat generated by the rise in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, they influence the weather by releasing heat and moisture into the atmosphere.
Water Vapor Drives Storms
According to Copernicus, the temperature records led to the highest amount of water vapor ever measured in the atmosphere. In 2024, it was about five percent above the average from 1991 to 2020. The combination of high sea temperatures and high humidity contributed to severe storms, including tropical cyclones.
On the other hand, prolonged dry spells in several regions favored wildfires, explained Copernicus, particularly highlighting extensive and long-lasting wildfires in America. In addition, the area of the Earth affected by at least "severe" heat stress reached a new record on July 10, when around 44 percent of the Earth experienced "severe" to "extreme heat stress."
There are also positive developments: E-cars and heat pumps
The Copernicus experts see the high emissions of man-made greenhouse gases as the main reason for the high temperatures. For instance, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere reached new record levels in 2024 since measurements began. Another factor contributing to the warming was the El Niño climate phenomenon, which peaked in December 2023 and influenced temperatures in the first half of 2024.
Höhne nevertheless points to positive developments: "We've seen that we can change things," he said. "Renewable energies, the number of e-cars, and heat pumps are developing faster worldwide each year than previously predicted."
"Ten years ago, we calculated that the Earth's temperature would rise by 3.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times by the end of the century," said Höhne, referring to the Climate Action Tracker climate project. Thanks to the rapid development in climate protection, it's now 2.7 degrees. If all countries adhere to their announced climate neutrality targets, it's 1.9 degrees. Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to zero globally. "But there is still a lot to do," Höhne said. But it is worth it.
Even Trump Cannot Change the Price Advantage of Renewables
The designated US President Donald Trump cannot turn against the fact that renewable energies are unbeatable in terms of cost. In Germany, it is important that the parties fight the climate crisis together, said Höhne.
Translated automatically from German."It is an existential crisis where parties must work together without playing each other off." The heating law is as necessary as the registration stop for combustion vehicles from 2035.
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