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COP28: Oil States Aim to "Approximately" Reduce CO2 Emissions to Zero by 2050 - in Production

Almost audacious: 50 oil and gas states and companies, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, commit to bringing CO2 emissions "roughly" to zero by 2050. However, they mean the emissions during the extraction process, not a general halt. And they are relying on DAC and CCS technology for CO2 capture, which is likely to remain enormously expensive for the foreseeable future. IEA: Phasing out fossil fuels is a necessary condition for the 1.5-degree target.

Reducing CO2: The oil states and corporations aim to bring their emissions during production close to zero, but by no means do they intend to abandon combustion. The resulting CO2 is then to be captured from the air and compressed. | Photo: Zukunft Erdgas/Kai Bublitz
Reducing CO2: The oil states and corporations aim to bring their emissions during production close to zero, but by no means do they intend to abandon combustion. The resulting CO2 is then to be captured from the air and compressed. | Photo: Zukunft Erdgas/Kai Bublitz
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Johannes Reichel

A statement by 50 oil and gas companies has caused outrage at the World Climate Conference. The president of the conference from the United Arab Emirates had sent a message stating that the Emirates and Saudi Arabia had agreed on a charter to decarbonize oil and gas. Additionally, 50 oil and gas companies joined the agreement, including Esson Mobil, Shell, Eni, BB, and state-owned companies such as Adnoc (Emirates), Saudi-Aramco, and Equinor (Norway). According to their own statements, they aim to make their activities climate-neutral by 2050 at the latest. However, this does not mean a general phase-out of oil and gas, but only the neutralization of the production process. The NGO Germanwatch, which is present in Dubai, called the declaration "greenwashing in its purest form." Not least, the emissions of the supply chains are completely ignored, even though they make up 80 to 90 percent of the total emissions. Only the emissions generated during the extraction of oil and gas are considered, not those from their combustion.

The Myth of CO2 Capture

In addition, countries like Saudi Arabia rely on removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it underground using CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) or DAC (Direct Air Capture) technology. However, this technology is still stuck in the pilot stage, as seen with Climeworks in Iceland. There, CO2 is stored for $1,000 per ton, immense costs, especially in relation to the current global average CO2 price of $20 across all established emission systems. Including "external costs," the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels would no longer be economically attractive. In this respect, widespread application seems rather unrealistic. Furthermore, the technology itself requires a lot of energy.

In the coming years, the states intend to invest 35 billion dollars in the technology, as COP and Adnoc President Sultan Al Jaber announced. The aim is essentially to limit emissions, but not oil production. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), current capacities allow for a maximum of 0.01 megatons of CO2 per year. Humanity's emissions currently amount to 37,000 megatons. The capacities would need to increase by a factor of 100,000, the IEA calculates, including the targeted emission reductions, to achieve net zero.

Doubts about Science?

Al Jaber had previously attracted attention with statements that cast doubt on human-caused climate change and science, which were published by the British newspaper The Guardian. According to this, the Sultan and oil company CEO declared at an event, "there is no science, no scenario that says that by moving away from the use of fossil fuels, the 1.5-degree target could be achieved." He challenged for someone to "show him the roadmap for exiting fossil fuels that enables sustainable socio-economic development. Unless you want to throw the world back into the Stone Age". Now Jaber felt compelled to justify himself and, in an appearance in Dubai, committed himself to science and the demand to reduce GHG emissions by 43 percent by 2030 so that the 1.5-degree target remains within reach. James Skea, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), complemented the statement with figures from the latest assessment report, according to which achieving the 1.5-degree target would require ending coal combustion without CO2 capture, reducing oil consumption by 60 percent, and cutting natural gas consumption by 45 percent.

"The scaling down and phasing out of fossil energies are unavoidable. For that, I will roll up my sleeves and seek solidarity with others," proclaimed Al Jaber.

Which, in turn, hardly aligns with the stated interests of the oil states and companies. According to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Saudi Arabia has complained that Al Jaber is advocating for the "phasing down" of fossil fuels. The Saudis, in an unholy alliance with Russia or Iraq, want to prevent such commitments in the final document. Their own company Adnoc primarily aims to further expand gas production.

IEA: Phasing out fossils is a necessary condition for the 1.5-degree target

Meanwhile, according to a statement from the BMWK at the 28th World Climate Conference (COP) in Dubai, nearly 120 countries, including Germany, have for the first time pledged to collectively triple the globally installed capacity of renewable energies and double the improvement rate of energy efficiency by the year 2030. These "global goals" are essential to enable the global phase-out of fossil energies, to achieve access to sustainable and secure energy for all, as well as prosperity and economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees these goals as a necessary condition to meet the 1.5°C target. Germany had, among other forums, advocated for the establishment of these global goals within the G7 and G20.

Translated automatically from German.
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