COP28 Dubai: The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Era - Maybe

With a 24-hour delay, the states at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai were finally able to agree on a final declaration. However, this falls short of expectations and what is required from a scientific perspective. For the first time, it was acknowledged by the global community that the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal must eventually come to an end. The head of the UN Climate Secretariat Simon Stiell also remarked that this is "the beginning of the end of fossil fuels." It is also considered crucial that the 1.5-degree target has not been abandoned and is frequently mentioned in the document. The COP28 President Ahmed Al Jaber even referred to it as the "North Star," to which all efforts should now be directed. The head of the Adnoc oil company praised the agreement as a "paradigm shift for the reconfiguration of economies," although it is somewhat self-serving.

Signal that "business as usual" cannot continue

However, renowned climate researcher Otmar Edenhofer from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) described it in an SZ interview as a "highly surprising" outcome, given the international mix of various interests and geopolitical tensions, even though the final document is not as good as hoped. He sees progress solely in the mention of fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal, and the term "phase-out" as a signal that "business as usual" cannot continue. Christoph Bals, head of the climate protection NGO Germanwatch and long-term participant in the climate conferences, also arrives at a relatively positive assessment because, for the first time since the beginning of the industrial revolution, governments have decided to turn away from coal, oil, and gas. "The decision will only be historic if it is actually implemented," said Bals. Naturally, a very positive assessment is also made by Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection Robert Habeck (Greens), who says:

"The path to a climate-friendly future is finally cleared. For the first time at COP28, the international community committed to moving away from all fossil fuels and massively expanding wind and solar energy, particularly by 2030. This is a clear signal to companies, markets, and investors: the energy of the future is renewable and will be used efficiently. Despite this groundbreaking result, much work remains to be done to completely leave the fossil fuel age behind."

But instead of a binding "phase out," the talk is now only of a "transition away" from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and fair manner. The text thus leaves numerous loopholes. The word "phase out" was blocked by oil states like Saudi Arabia. For the so-called "transition," emission-free and low-emission technologies are to be "accelerated."

Nuclear power and CCS as methods of choice?

In addition to renewable energies, this also includes nuclear power and the controversial and barely industrial-scale developed Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which is unlikely to play a significant role in the short term. Bizarrely, through the term "unabated," the use of coal could still be legitimized as long as the emissions are captured using CCS. The EU introduced the limitation in areas where emissions are particularly difficult to reduce. For this, natural gas and blue hydrogen (from natural gas and with CCS) are also to be allowed as bridging technologies.

Triple Renewables by 2030, Double Energy Efficiency

After all, there are plans to triple the capacity of renewables by 2030 and also ramp up the pace for energy efficiency. This has already been agreed upon within the G20 group. The goal is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030, which also references the 1.5-degree target. This aims to underscore the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels. At the beginning of the hopefully started but almost failed conference, the so-called Fund for Damages and Losses was already agreed upon. With this fund, industrialized countries, which have caused the climate crisis through their emissions, aim to at least partially compensate poorer nations for their damages. So far, wealthy nations have pledged 700 million dollars.

Far too little for the 1.5-degree goal

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released sobering calculations regarding the decisions made in Dubai: According to these, if all the pledged national climate protection plans were implemented, only 30 percent of the gap towards the 1.5-degree goal would be closed. This includes commitments from 50 oil and gas companies to reduce methane emissions by 2030, a tripling of wind and solar energy, and a doubling of energy efficiency.

At least the final statement sends a signal to investors to no longer finance fossil projects, even though currently the overwhelming majority of funds still flow into the development of oil, coal, and gas projects. In general, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the ambitious Paris climate goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times can be achieved with the measures decided upon. Correspondingly, the comment from the environment minister of the island nation of Samoa, which is threatened by flooding, was:

"We've achieved a small improvement over business as usual, but what we need is an exponential change in our actions. We conclude that the necessary course correction has not been secured," the minister stated.