CAM expects a decline in new registrations for electric cars in 2024.

The future development of the German electric vehicle market is fraught with great uncertainties. In view of economic risks, the premature termination of the purchase premium for electric cars, and the continued lack of affordable models, the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) expects declining new electric car registrations for the current year 2024, ranging between 430,000 to 480,000 vehicles. By comparison: In the entire year 2023, 524,000 fully electric cars were newly registered.

Study Director Prof. Stefan Bratzel: “Electric mobility in Germany is in a difficult transition phase after the purchase premium was discontinued, with declining new electric registrations in 2024. The high purchase prices of electric cars, averaging around 52,000 euros, and the lack of affordable models compared to combustion vehicles are a purchase barrier for broad buyer groups. It is to be expected that many car manufacturers will reduce purchase prices through appropriate discounts in 2024, thus accepting lower margins. Manufacturers like Tesla or Chinese brands, who already possess a better cost position thanks to their high vertical integration and experience, have advantages. A stronger dynamic in electric mobility in Germany can only be expected again in 2025, due to a higher number of affordable models.”

Competitive Purchase Prices Needed

In order for the growth of electromobility to regain momentum in the short and medium term, not only mature technical capabilities (i.e., range, charging performance, consumption) of the vehicles are required, but especially competitive purchase prices, according to CAM in its study. In an analysis of more than 100 electric models newly registered in Germany in the past year 2023, the BYD Dolphin and the Tesla Model 3 currently show the most attractive ratio between acquisition costs and the available WLTP range. The BYD Dolphin is available at prices starting from 35,990 euros (gross) and offers a range of 427 km (WLTP) in the entry-level variant, resulting in a price-range ratio of approximately 84 euros/km.

Similar values are observed for the Tesla Model 3: With a gross list price of 45,668 euros and a WLTP range of 513 km, this results in a factor of 89 euros/km. Both models thus lie significantly below the average price-range ratio, which is around 115 euros/km across all 105 vehicles examined in Germany.