By 2030: Environmental Organizations Demand End to Combustion Engines

After Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU) advocated for a fixed end date for combustion engine models by 2035, major environmental organizations are now putting additional pressure on the automotive industry. In a dramatic call, they appealed on Friday to the corporate leaders of German manufacturers Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler, namely Herbert Diess, Oliver Zipse, and Ola Källenius, to exit combustion technology significantly faster. In a letter cited by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, organizations such as BUND, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, the alternative mobility club VCD, the environmental NGO Germanwatch, and the European environmental umbrella organization Transport & Environment (T&E) are calling for "no new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with combustion engines (including hybrid vehicles) to be sold in Europe no later than 2030."

Paris Climate Goals Only Achievable with Rapid Exit

The year 2020 was the second warmest year in a row, with the average temperature exceeding the multi-year average. The transport sector is responsible for 28 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. According to the associations, only through a rapid exit from combustion technology and a socially acceptable transformation can companies contribute to the Paris climate goals and improved health protection.

They also point specifically to the context of a global pandemic with a virus that attacks the respiratory system. Against this backdrop, a quick farewell to the combustion engine is also warranted. The NGOs now see the corporations as responsible and believe that a commitment to phasing out combustion engines could give the "urgently needed drive change the necessary impetus." Additionally, they emphasize the signaling effect for suppliers, the energy and financial sectors, and governments to make investments and decisions.

Transport Minister: Fixed Exit from "Fossil Combustion"

In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer advocated for a fixed date for the fossil combustion engine exit by 2035 but tied this to the demand for the promotion of synfuels.

"The fossil combustion engine, powered by gasoline or diesel, must get an end date. To bring the highly developed combustion engine technology in Germany into the future, synthetic fuels need to move out of the test tube and into mass production," Scheuer demanded.

The competitiveness of synfuels needs the pressure from the legislator. Technology must remain open while continuing to set "stringent climate protection requirements" to create incentives to use the next 15 years to develop competitive, clean fuels for combustion engines, the Minister commented. However, he voted against a short-term tightening of emission standards by the EU in the context of the Euro-7 standard.

"The Transport Ministry will take a very negative position in the Euro-7 debate," he announced.

One should focus on "existing emission standards and not engage in a debate about even stricter specifications." The limit values must remain technically feasible, Scheuer stated.

VDA President Müller Against Fixed Exit Date – and for Synfuels

This stance largely aligns with the position of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), whose President Hildegard Müller recently said in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung she was against a fixed end for the combustion engine. She also differentiated, stating:

"The problem is not the engine but the fossil fuel," she said.

From her perspective, the use of synthetic fuels would still be possible. She did not want to commit to a fixed date. Considering the current state of electrification, she believed it to be too early and more of a symbolic nature. She pointed to the inadequate development of charging infrastructure, which is "notable" in only four EU states and still needs to be improved significantly in Southern and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, German manufacturers are bringing more electric cars to the market than anyone else in Europe, she claimed.

VDA Against a Speed Limit of 130 km/h

Once again, Müller described the EU plans for a tightened Euro-7 standard as the “factual end of the combustion engine” and unrealistic. When asked about the accusation that members of the association were stalling to preserve the business model with diesel and gasoline engines, Müller replied: "We are not stalling." The concern is that unattainable emission targets would be set without "sufficient acceptance of electromobility." She once again argued against a speed limit, which the Greens and, now, the SPD have clearly supported. Müller stated that highways are the safest roads, and a 130 km/h limit has "almost no climate effects." They support "smart and digitally controlled speed limits" but are against a "rigid 130 sign limit."

What Does This Mean?

One cannot help but get the impression that parts of the German automotive industry and its association are trying to survive with an outdated yet enormously lucrative business model that, unfortunately, never accounted for environmental costs. This stubborn insistence on the "piston engine" is difficult to explain, especially considering the equally stubborn and anachronistic insistence on "free travel for free citizens," meaning opposition to a speed limit. Clearly, Daimler CEO Ola Källenius openly admits that the combustion engine is a "cash machine." VW brand chief Ralf Brandstätter also recently stated that the future must also be earned with the combustion engine.

But forward-looking entrepreneurship certainly looks different: The future should have been earned in the past by setting the course for electrification earlier.

Moreover, electric vehicles are currently advancing worldwide to such a degree that some industry experts have already classified the combustion engine as a "niche product" for 2030. Therefore, attempting to keep it alive with synfuels would be a complete misinvestment. It would be like jumping on a departing train heading towards the siding. Green transport politician Cem Özdemir also believes the "game is over" for combustion engines and recently stated at the VDA Congress that if the few 911s have to fill up with synfuel for five euros per liter in the future, then that is "priced in" at the vehicle level.

Expensive Fossil Fuels Will Be Bought in Pharmacies Again

At least VW Group CEO Herbert Diess makes no secret of the fact that they do not think highly of synfuels – except for Porsche, a subsidiary with a lively spirit that wants to save the conventional icon 911 for the future. But for those who believe that we still have time to buy a sports car with a combustion engine and are not convinced by the overwhelming performance of an electric Taycan, they can be told: They can get the expensive fuel for the occasional drive in the future at the pharmacy. As it was in the early days of the combustion engine – in memory of Bertha Benz.

The Transport Minister and the association should consider a much better and more tangible interim solution and bridging technology: Biomethane. Proven and tested for decades, it could immediately unlock much more potential instead of initiating distractions with synfuels.

The CNG drive is also more future-proof concerning climate-friendly operations than flooding the market with millions of fossil combustion engines, even in the quite absurd configuration as plug-in hybrids. After all, a car remains an investment good that will be in service for at least ten to fifteen years.

Every "fossil combustion engine" eliminated today is therefore a good combustion engine; this must be clearly stated. However, one must also generally note: A 1:1 swap of combustion engines for electric vehicles will not save the world. We need an entirely different type of mobility based on the subsidiarity principle. In the city, a bicycle, one’s own feet, an e-scooter, or the good old, newly reinvented public transport will suffice! Incidentally, the term "city car" is almost a contradiction in itself.

And it would be a fatal illusion if politicians gave this impression. We definitely need fewer of the cars parked for 23 hours a day for reasons of resource conservation. And the remaining ones should drive electrically and, even better, be shared.

Furthermore, besides CNG drives, electric drives are already advanced to meet everyday mobility needs. Given the rapid technological development, by 2030, we will have ranges of over 400 kilometers, and there simply will be no need for combustion engines. Today, some manufacturers already offer the smart mobility option: electric for everyday use, combustion engine for vacations. The early BMW formula from the initial electric phase and the guiding principle of the visionary i3 still applies: An electric car with a small battery is more environmentally friendly than one with a large battery. Efficiency is more than ever "environment trump!"

Elaborate and expensive synfuels will be needed – and urgently, in the form of bio-kerosene, to finally make air travel more environmentally friendly, which, as a lesson from Corona and thanks to the digitalization boost, will hopefully remain at a lower level than before.

For trucks and ships, "green hydrogen" combined with fuel cells is also an option. Although even here, the final word has not yet been spoken: With an adequate fast-charging infrastructure, heavy long-haul trucks could also be battery-electric, while they are already set for local transport.

Pilot Projects Testing Electrification of Long-Haul Trucks

There are already initial pilot projects like HoLa. VW Works Council Chairman Osterloh also considers BEV plausible for trucks. Tesla, a technology leader, is betting on battery-electrics for heavy long-haul trucks anyway. In the meantime, the CNG/LNG technology could also help in this area because biomethane trucks running on fuel from waste or straw residues are already driving almost climate-neutrally today and are experiencing a pleasing boom in demand among transporters.

We should not get bogged down in trying to make synfuels suitable and affordable for the mass automotive market over the next ten years. The solutions are already on the table, and the tools are in the box. We just need to apply them correctly, consistently, and stringently with the goal "maximum climate protection now."