BUND and IG Metall present scenarios for a mobility transition by 2035

Evaluation: The First Scenario Should Be Avoided

The first scenario, "The Mobility Sector 2030: Partially Innovative, Partially Internationally Left Behind," would bring especially uncomfortable aspects for BUND and IG Metall and offer few favorable opportunities. The innovation in the field of automated driving is a positive highlight of the first scenario. Electromobility has also developed positively in nominal terms. However, measured by its development potential, it falls short of its possibilities, as the other two scenarios show. The uncomfortable aspects of the first scenario, as already indicated by the title, clearly outweigh the positives.

• The mobility sector shrinks, is less innovative, and products are less in demand internationally.
• The climate protection goals are not met.
• There is a general political fatigue in shaping policies after the Corona crisis.
• The increasing social polarization between climate radicals, hedonists, and the economically left behind paralyzes the societal drive for transformations, especially among younger generations.
• Additionally, there are some external events or developments that IG Metall and BUND should keep on their radar, including the low availability of renewable energy and, above all, the scarcity of critical raw materials.

In total, the first scenario—which was constructed as an expectation scenario—was deemed undesirable by the group. Consequently, strategic options regarding this scenario would focus on how to prevent or at least mitigate the emergence of the first scenario and its uncomfortable aspects.

The third scenario, "The Mobility Sector 2030: Between Transformation and Conversion," presents a mixed picture of favorable opportunities and uncomfortable aspects. The ecological reliefs are a positive highlight of this scenario. The climate goals are achieved because the demand for energy and mobility is reduced due to a sufficiency-oriented change in behavior, and the modal split has accordingly shifted after a traffic and mobility transition. In particular, the railways and mobility service providers are successful and growing under these conditions.

Rapid and Profound Structural Change

The other side of the coin becomes apparent when looking at other areas of the mobility sector. In the third scenario, a rapid and profound structural change has occurred, posing major challenges for the traditional automotive industry and bringing social issues of societal significance. This is also due to the significantly lower number of jobs and the associated decline in job quality. In this scenario, there are also external developments, which elude direct control or design, that are worth keeping on the radar due to their negative impacts:

• On the one hand, the consequences of climate change, which entail substantial ecological and economic damages and lead to social disruptions.
• On the other hand, supply interruptions of critical raw materials caused by political reasons, which do not trigger the negative aspects of this scenario but significantly amplify them.

Unlike the first scenario, the question in light of the third scenario is how the described ecological reliefs can be achieved while simultaneously preventing a looming collapse of large parts of the mobility sector.

Achieving Economic and Ecological Transformation?

The second scenario, "The Mobility Sector 2030: A Good Start, Then All Set Towards Mobility," reverses this strategic question (from the third scenario): How can both economic and ecological transformations succeed? The second scenario outlines some favorable developments for large parts of the mobility sector.

• Under the conditions of the scenario, the automotive industry, in particular, can grow and bring forth innovations in automated driving and electric mobility.
• The quality of working conditions has also improved alongside the increase in job numbers.
• Additionally, a financial transformation is positively highlighted, directing investments into sustainable industries and companies.
• However, since individual transport still plays a dominant role and the demand for mobility is very high, CO2 emissions have increased significantly. An energy, traffic, and climate transition has not yet begun.
• Many sustainability goals are not met under these conditions, and the climate targets for 2030 cannot be achieved.

This scenario landscape does not depict a scenario where all plausibly conceivable favorable opportunities come together simultaneously, wherein the transformation of the mobility sector, as well as the traffic and climate transition, succeed. The green-bordered raw scenario (see table) could be the starting point for such a thought experiment. Nevertheless, the present scenario landscape allows deriving strategic implications toward a ideally desirable future by promoting the favorable opportunities of the present scenarios and preventing or mitigating uncomfortable aspects.