Sollte der Fahrstrompreis für E-Autos auf zehn Jahre vergünstigt werden, wie es der Grüne Ministerpräsident Winfried Kretschmann vorschlägt?
Branchen-Newsletter
Wir informieren Sie kostenlos zweimal wöchentlich über die aktuellen Entwicklungen in Sachen New Mobility.
Meist gelesen
Aktueller Top Event
Branchenguide
BMDV Forecast 2040: Traffic is increasing, emissions are expected to decrease
Federal Minister of Transport Volker Wissing (FDP) presented the results of the new traffic forecast 2040 in Berlin together with the Institute Intraplan. It extends to the year 2040 and replaces the previous forecast 2030. It is the most comprehensive forecast of future traffic development in Germany in more than ten years, created by study author Tobias Kluth. It takes into account the latest developments in the areas of mobility and logistics, but also changed conditions such as population growth, the impacts of the energy transition, and the consequences of the Ukraine war, according to the ministry. The traffic forecast 2040 is intended to serve as the basis for the needs assessment and thus the realignment of transport investments.
Key Results
According to the forecast, traffic in Germany is expected to increase by 2040, particularly in the freight sector. Compared to 2019, the last year before the corona pandemic, traffic volume will increase by about a third – from 689 to 905 billion ton-kilometers. Rail freight traffic will increase the most (+35 percent). Trucks will remain the dominant mode of transport with an increase of 34 percent, while transport by waterways will decline. Passenger traffic will increase by about 8 percent to 1,323 billion passenger-kilometers by 2040. Here too, rail will grow the most (+60 percent) ahead of air travel (+30 percent). Road traffic will decrease slightly (-1 percent) in terms of passenger kilometers. However, measured by modal split, cars and motorcycles remain by far the most popular means of transport in Germany. Two-thirds of the journeys are made by them.
“The traffic forecast 2040 has a clear message: Traffic in Germany will increase significantly. To prevent a traffic infarction in the future, we must continue to act decisively and invest in all modes of transport: We need a highly resilient existing network. Our aging routes, bridges, tunnels, and locks must urgently be refurbished. The expansion of the railway must be further advanced at full speed. At the same time, the maintenance and new construction of roads are indispensable, as the car remains the backbone of mobility in Germany. I am fighting to ensure that people can freely meet their mobility needs in 2040, and that the economy grows – thanks to a good transport infrastructure. It is now up to the Bundestag to live up to this responsibility," explains Wissing.
Structural Change in Goods: Less Coal, More Shipments
Structural change is seen as decisive for changes in freight transport. Due to the energy transition, there is a strong decline in mass and energy goods such as coal, coke, petroleum products, and ores, which were previously transported primarily by rail and waterway. There is significant growth in goods that are predominantly transported by road. This includes postal shipments (+86 percent), mixed cargo (+56 percent), as well as food and luxury goods (+30 percent). Additionally, investments in the climate-neutral conversion of residential buildings are leading to construction traffic of new dimensions, where delivery cannot be made by inland waterway or rail.
Despite this change, the forecast shows an increase in the share of rail in freight transport—also due to the measures of the federal government, such as corridor renewal. The path chosen by the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) to strengthen rail and expand its capacities with a high-performance network is an essential prerequisite for the railway to accommodate the additional traffic.
Massive Reduction in CO2 Emissions
As a result of switching to climate-friendly drives on all modes of transport, direct CO2 emissions in transport are expected to decrease by 77 percent compared to 1990. In car traffic, by more than 80 percent. According to the ministry, a traffic forecast has never calculated such a significant reduction in emissions before. The traffic forecast thus shows great progress in decarbonizing transport in Germany and converting road transport to a climate-neutral carrier. From the minister's perspective, it confirms the impact of transport policy measures such as the expansion of the charging infrastructure or the introduction of the CO2 toll for trucks. From Wissing's perspective, the forecast also underscores the importance of climate-friendly fuels for CO2 reduction in road transport.
Basic Inventory of Traffic Events
The traffic forecast for 2040 is the latest and most comprehensive basic inventory of traffic events in Germany. It forecasts traffic for around 1,600 traffic areas in Germany for the first time. This is four times higher than before and allows for more precise mapping of traffic. The newly presented baseline forecast is the start of publishing further specialist sections on individual modes of transport. It was created by a consortium of independent institutes led by Intraplan. A total of 132 assumptions were used as the basis, influencing future traffic events. Over 250 specialist agencies were involved. The results will be presented and discussed in more depth at a conference on December 10, 2024, the ministry announced.
Translated automatically from German.
Branchenguide
Elektromobilität , Newsletter Elektromobilität , IAA Mobility , SUVs und Geländewagen , Hybrid , Antriebsarten, Kraftstoffe und Emissionen , Oberklasse- und Sportwagen , Carsharing , Autonomes Fahren (Straßenverkehr) , Ladeinfrastruktur , Verkehrspolitik , Formel E , Brennstoffzellen , Fahrzeug-Vernetzung und -Kommunikation , Fahrzeuge & Fuhrpark , Automotive-Messen & Veranstaltungen , Pkw, Kompakt- und Mittelklasse , Minis und Kleinwagen , E-Auto-Datenbank, E-Mobilität-/Automotive-Newsletter, E-Auto-Tests
